March Madness Upsets Decline as NIL and Transfer Portal Impact Mid-Majors

New data reveals fewest double-digit seed wins in nearly two decades as top talent leaves smaller programs.

Mar. 22, 2026 at 12:40am

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The 2026 NCAA Tournament has seen a significant decline in the number of big upsets by double-digit seeds, with only four such wins in the first round. This marks the lowest total since 2007, in contrast with recent years that saw as many as 10 double-digit seed victories. Experts attribute this trend to the impact of NIL deals and the transfer portal, which have allowed richer programs to lure top talent away from mid-major teams, stripping them of their Cinderella potential.

Why it matters

The decline in March Madness upsets is seen as a concerning trend, as the "Cinderella" stories of smaller programs knocking off powerhouses have long been a beloved part of the tournament's appeal. This shift raises questions about the competitive balance of college basketball and whether the new NIL and transfer portal landscape is fundamentally altering the landscape of the sport.

The details

Data analysis shows that for the second consecutive year, no teams seeded #13-#16 advanced past the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. This is a stark contrast to just a few years ago, when there were as many as four such teams reaching the second round. Overall, the 2026 tournament saw only four double-digit seed wins, the lowest total since 2007. Experts point to the impact of NIL deals and the transfer portal, which have allowed richer programs to lure top talent away from mid-major teams, stripping them of the ability to pull off Cinderella runs.

  • The 2026 NCAA Tournament is currently underway, with the round of 32 games taking place on Saturday.
  • In 2021, there were four teams seeded #13-#16 that advanced past the first round.
  • As recently as 2016, there were 10 total double-digit seed wins in the NCAA Tournament first round.

The players

High Point

A mid-major program that pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 NCAA Tournament by defeating the heavily favored Wisconsin Badgers.

VCU

Another mid-major team that was able to upset North Carolina in the first round of the 2026 tournament.

Texas Longhorns

A #11 seed that won their first-round game, though their status as an underdog is debated given their status as one of the wealthiest athletic departments in college sports.

Texas A&M Aggies

A #10 seed that also won their first-round game, though like Texas, their status as an underdog is questionable.

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What they’re saying

“March Madness is in full swing, with the round of 32 officially underway on Saturday.”

— Ian Miller, Author

“For the second consecutive year, there were no teams seeded from #13-#16 to advance past the first round.”

— X account

“With just four double-digit seeds advancing, it was the lowest total since 2007.”

— Nick Bateman

What’s next

As the tournament progresses, it remains to be seen whether this decline in Cinderella stories is a lasting trend or an aberration. The NCAA and college basketball fans will be closely watching to see if the impact of NIL deals and the transfer portal continues to reshape the competitive landscape of March Madness.

The takeaway

The 2026 NCAA Tournament's lack of big upsets by double-digit seeds highlights the growing influence of NIL deals and the transfer portal, which have allowed richer programs to lure top talent away from mid-major teams. This shift raises concerns about the future of Cinderella stories and the competitive balance of college basketball, as the sport grapples with the implications of these new player empowerment initiatives.