Shifts in Gulf Stream Could Signal Collapse of Key Atlantic Currents

Early warning signal hidden within the Gulf Stream may help predict failure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Mar. 12, 2026 at 11:52am

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A new study finds that shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream, a warm current that flows along the U.S. East Coast, could serve as an early warning signal for the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - a giant system of ocean currents that brings heat to the Northern Hemisphere and Europe. The researchers observed an abrupt northward shift of the Gulf Stream 25 years before the start of an AMOC collapse in their climate model simulations.

Why it matters

The AMOC is believed to be weakening due to climate change, and its collapse could have severe consequences for the climate in many parts of the world, including Northwest Europe and tropical monsoon regions. Being able to predict an AMOC collapse years in advance using changes in the Gulf Stream could help scientists and policymakers prepare for the potential impacts.

The details

The researchers triggered an AMOC collapse in their high-resolution ocean model and observed the Gulf Stream's response in unprecedented detail. They found two stages: first, a gradual northward drift of the Gulf Stream by 83 miles (133 km) as the AMOC weakened over 392 years; then, an abrupt 136-mile (219 km) northward jump just 25 years before the start of the AMOC collapse. This abrupt shift could serve as an early warning signal, though the actual lag time between the shift and the collapse may be shorter in reality due to the accelerating effects of global temperature rise.

  • The researchers observed a gradual northward drift of the Gulf Stream by 83 miles (133 km) over 392 simulated years as the AMOC weakened.
  • The researchers then observed an abrupt 136-mile (219 km) northward jump of the Gulf Stream just 25 years before the start of the AMOC collapse in their model.

The players

René van Westen

A postdoctoral researcher in climate physics at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and the lead author of the study.

Henk Dijkstra

A professor of physical oceanography at Utrecht University and a co-author of the study.

Maya Ben-Yami

A climate tipping point researcher at the Technical University of Munich and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany who was not involved in the research.

Gulf Stream

A warm current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico and flows along the U.S. East Coast, which is a branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

A giant system of ocean currents that brings heat to the Northern Hemisphere and Europe, which is believed to be weakening due to climate change.

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What they’re saying

“First, you have this very gradual northward drift [of the Gulf Stream], which is related to some AMOC weakening, but apparently there is also this jump when the AMOC is getting too weak, which is this early warning indicator.”

— René van Westen, postdoctoral researcher in climate physics (Live Science)

“This paper definitely points at Gulf Stream changes as a possible warning signal, but a lot more work would need to be done to confirm that, for example by looking across different models.”

— Maya Ben-Yami, climate tipping point researcher (Live Science)

What’s next

The researchers plan to analyze satellite data to determine the true lag time between the abrupt northward shift of the Gulf Stream and the collapse of the AMOC, in order to refine the early warning signal.

The takeaway

Shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream could serve as an early indicator of the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a critical ocean current system that helps regulate the climate in the Northern Hemisphere and Europe. Further research is needed to confirm the reliability of this potential early warning signal.