5 Takeaways From the March 3 Primary Elections

Though most of the results aligned with expectations ahead of the election, the night saw at least one major electoral surprise.

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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The March 3 primary elections in Texas and North Carolina had high stakes for the control of Congress in 2027. While most results matched expectations, the night saw at least one major electoral surprise, including the defeat of Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas's 2nd Congressional District.

Why it matters

The primary elections in Texas and North Carolina were crucial in determining the balance of power in Congress, as the outcomes could influence which party controls the Senate in 2027. The surprise defeat of Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a prominent Republican, also signals a shift in the party's dynamics and the rise of more conservative challengers.

The details

In the Texas Republican Senate primary, neither Sen. John Cornyn nor Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton achieved 50% of the vote, leading to a runoff election on May 26. In the Texas Democratic Senate primary, State Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett, though Crockett has indicated she plans to file a lawsuit challenging the results. In the race for Texas's 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Dan Crenshaw was defeated by State Rep. Steve Toth, a more conservative challenger. In North Carolina, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won their respective party's Senate nominations, setting up a competitive general election matchup.

  • The primary elections were held on March 3, 2026.
  • The Texas Republican Senate primary runoff will be held on May 26, 2026.

The players

John Cornyn

A U.S. Senator from Texas and a former member of Senate leadership who has been in the chamber for over two decades.

Ken Paxton

The Texas Attorney General who is heading to a runoff in the Texas Republican Senate primary race.

James Talarico

A Texas State Representative who defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary.

Jasmine Crockett

A U.S. Representative from Texas who was defeated by James Talarico in the Democratic Senate primary, and has indicated she plans to file a lawsuit challenging the results.

Dan Crenshaw

A U.S. Representative from Texas who was defeated in his primary bid for the GOP nomination for Texas's 2nd Congressional District by a more conservative challenger, Steve Toth.

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What they’re saying

“The same thing is going to happen here.”

— Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General

“People have been disenfranchised.”

— Jasmine Crockett, U.S. Representative

What’s next

The Texas Republican Senate primary runoff will be held on May 26, 2026, which will determine the party's nominee for the general election.

The takeaway

The March 3 primary elections in Texas and North Carolina highlighted the ongoing power struggle within the Republican Party, with more conservative challengers defeating establishment figures like Rep. Dan Crenshaw. This shift could have significant implications for the balance of power in Congress following the 2026 midterm elections.