United CEO Sees 50-50 Odds for Boom Overture Supersonic Jet, Skeptics Dismiss Concept

Industry experts express doubts about Boom Supersonic's ability to deliver its Overture aircraft, despite the company's ambitious plans.

Mar. 16, 2026 at 12:40pm

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United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has given Boom Supersonic's Overture supersonic jet a 50-50 chance of becoming a reality, while industry analysts like Richard Aboulafia and Kevin Michaels have dismissed the concept entirely. Boom founder Blake Schell has pushed back against the criticism, arguing that the company has already achieved significant milestones. However, Kirby acknowledged that the current Overture design has too short of a range to be commercially viable, and Boom has struggled to secure established engine partners.

Why it matters

The debate over the Overture's viability highlights the challenges facing the revival of commercial supersonic flight, which has not been achieved since the retirement of Concorde in 2003. The success or failure of the Overture could have significant implications for the future of high-speed air travel and the aerospace industry's ability to innovate.

The details

Boom Supersonic plans to manufacture its Overture aircraft at a plant in Greensboro, North Carolina, with the goal of having the plane fly as early as the current decade. However, industry experts have expressed skepticism about the company's ability to deliver on its promises. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has given the Overture a 50-50 chance of getting off the ground, while analysts like Richard Aboulafia and Kevin Michaels have been more dismissive, with Aboulafia saying he would 'just write off Boom' and Michaels joking about a 'bet in our office going, how long until Boom goes boom.' Boom founder Blake Schell has pushed back against the criticism, arguing that the company has already achieved significant milestones and is committed to persevering.

  • Boom Supersonic plans to manufacture the Overture aircraft at a plant in Greensboro, North Carolina.
  • Boom founder Blake Schell dismissed the criticism in an email sent in March 2026.

The players

Scott Kirby

The CEO of United Airlines, who has given Boom Supersonic's Overture a 50-50 chance of becoming a reality.

Richard Aboulafia

A managing director of Aerodynamic Advisory, who has said he would 'just write off Boom' and its Overture concept.

Kevin Michaels

A managing director at Aerodynamic Advisory, who joked about a 'bet in our office going, how long until Boom goes boom.'

Blake Schell

The founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic, who has pushed back against the criticism of the Overture concept.

David Slotnick

An aviation writer who attended a presentation by United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby and reported on his comments about the Overture's chances.

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What they’re saying

“We have a bet in our office going, how long until Boom goes boom.”

— Kevin Michaels, Managing Director, Aerodynamic Advisory (Leeham News)

“Since Concorde retired in 2003, the so-called experts have said a supersonic renaissance was unattainable and certainly couldn't come from an industry outsider. In that time, Boom flew the first independently-developed supersonic jet, secured orders from major airlines like United, demonstrated boomless supersonic flight, and successfully legalized supersonic flight in the US. Now these same 'experts' say Boom's Symphony engine won't work and that the Overture airliner will never carry passengers. Much tough work remains—but we're proud of what our team has accomplished, and we're never giving up.”

— Blake Schell, Founder and CEO, Boom Supersonic (Email to the author)

“I think it's 50/50 on whether Boom gets flying or not.”

— Scott Kirby, CEO, United Airlines (The Layover)

What’s next

Boom Supersonic continues to work on the development of the Overture aircraft, with the goal of having it fly as early as the current decade. The company will need to address the range limitations identified by United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby in order to make the aircraft commercially viable.

The takeaway

The debate over the Boom Overture's viability highlights the ongoing challenges facing the revival of commercial supersonic flight, an industry that has not seen significant progress since the retirement of Concorde in 2003. The success or failure of the Overture could have far-reaching implications for the future of high-speed air travel and the aerospace industry's ability to innovate.