Retail Sales Flat in December, Closing Out Lackluster Year

Economists surprised by lack of growth despite economic headwinds

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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Retail sales were flat in December compared to November, surprising economists who were expecting growth despite concerns about slowing job growth, trade tensions, and other economic challenges. The report from the Commerce Department showed declines in several sectors, including furniture, home furnishings, and electronics, raising questions about consumers' willingness to spend after months of resilience.

Why it matters

The flat retail sales numbers in December close out a year marked by economic uncertainty, with consumer confidence declining sharply and businesses facing a range of headwinds. The data offers a glimpse into the health of consumer spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.

The details

Retail sales were flat in December compared to November, when they had risen 0.6%. Economists were expecting a 0.4% increase for December. The report showed declines in several sectors, including furniture and home furnishings stores, and electronics and appliance retailers. Building materials and garden stores saw a solid sales increase, while gas stations and food and beverage stores saw small gains. The data does not include many services like travel and lodging, but the lone services category - restaurants - registered a 0.1% dip.

  • Retail sales fell 0.1% in October, rose 0.1% in September, and jumped 0.6% in July and August and 1% in June, according to the Commerce Department.
  • The report was delayed due to the 43-day government shutdown.

The players

Commerce Department

The U.S. government agency that issued the report on retail sales.

Chris Zaccarelli

Chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management in Charlotte, North Carolina, who commented on the report.

Thomas Ryan

North America economist at Capital Economics, who also commented on the report.

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What they’re saying

“Consumer spending has finally caught up with consumer sentiment, and not in a good way.”

— Chris Zaccarelli, Chief investment officer (Northlight Asset Management)

“This month's data show that consumers are no longer relentlessly increasing their level of spending.”

— Chris Zaccarelli, Chief investment officer (Northlight Asset Management)

“But given expected stimulus from the bigger tax refund checks, he thinks that consumption at the end of the first quarter of this year "may turn out to be a lot stronger than it currently looks at the start.”

— Thomas Ryan, North America economist (Capital Economics)

What’s next

Economists will be closely monitoring a slew of economic reports on jobs and prices due out later this week.

The takeaway

The flat retail sales numbers in December highlight the economic uncertainty facing consumers and businesses, with concerns about slowing job growth, trade tensions, and other headwinds weighing on spending. However, the potential for stronger consumer spending later in the year due to factors like tax refunds offers some optimism.