Cooper Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Whatley in Latest U.S. Senate Poll

Democratic former governor maintains strong advantage in North Carolina Senate race

Mar. 31, 2026 at 5:55pm

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A serene, cinematic painting depicting a lone campaign sign or political office space, with warm sunlight and deep shadows creating a pensive, contemplative atmosphere.The tranquil, nostalgic mood of this political campaign scene reflects the complex dynamics at play in North Carolina's pivotal Senate race.Catawba Today

A new poll shows Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper leading former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley by over a dozen points in the race for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat. The Catawba-YouGov survey found 48% of likely voters prefer Cooper compared to 34% for Whatley, with 14% undecided.

Why it matters

The North Carolina Senate race is seen as a key battleground for Democrats to potentially flip a Republican-held seat and gain ground in the narrowly divided U.S. Senate. Cooper's double-digit lead suggests he may be able to appeal to a broader range of voters beyond just the Democratic base.

The details

The poll found Cooper leading Whatley 47% to 31% among decided voters, and 48% to 34% including those who initially said they were undecided but lean towards a candidate. Cooper's strong name recognition and appeal to independent voters appear to be driving his advantage, even as both parties face broader challenges in the state.

  • The Catawba-YouGov poll was conducted between March 9-18, 2026.

The players

Roy Cooper

Democratic former governor of North Carolina who served from 2017 to 2025, and previously served four terms as the state's Attorney General.

Michael Whatley

Former chair of the North Carolina Republican Party from 2019 to 2024, and the Republican nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Thom Tillis

Retiring Republican U.S. Senator from North Carolina.

Kamala Harris

Vice President of the United States.

Kay Hagan

Democratic U.S. Senator from North Carolina who served from 2009 to 2015.

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What they’re saying

“What stands out is the contrast between the Senate race and the broader partisan environment.”

— Michael Bitzer, Catawba College history and politics professor and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics and Public Service

“Cooper's double-digit lead, even as both parties have relatively weak standing, suggests voters are potentially responding more to the candidate's familiarity and profile than to party labels alone, with some openness to crossing party lines.”

— Michael Bitzer, Catawba College history and politics professor and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics and Public Service

“When it comes to Whatley's standing, there is still a sizable portion of his own party and independents who are unfamiliar with him. And yet, he still garners strong support from Republican identifiers, which underscores the role of partisan loyalty in shaping early preferences.”

— Michael Bitzer, Catawba College history and politics professor and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics and Public Service

What’s next

The next major milestone in the North Carolina Senate race will be the primary elections, where Cooper and Whatley will need to secure their party's nominations before facing off in the general election.

The takeaway

This early polling suggests Cooper may be able to appeal to a broader range of voters beyond just the Democratic base, potentially making him a formidable candidate in the general election. However, Whatley's strong support among Republicans could also be a factor, underscoring the continued importance of partisan loyalty in shaping voter preferences.