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Belly Fat Linked To Heart Failure Risk
Excess fat stored around the waist is more strongly associated with heart failure risk than BMI, study finds.
Mar. 18, 2026 at 7:00pm
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A new study presented at an American Heart Association meeting found that excess belly fat, as measured by waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio, is more strongly associated with increased heart failure risk than body mass index (BMI). The study of nearly 2,000 Black adults in Jackson, Mississippi also found that inflammation explains a quarter to a third of the link between excess belly fat and heart failure.
Why it matters
This research suggests that monitoring waist size and inflammation could help clinicians identify people with higher risk of heart failure earlier and focus on prevention strategies, rather than relying solely on BMI as an indicator of heart health risk.
The details
The study tracked nearly 2,000 Black adults from an ongoing study of heart disease in Jackson, Mississippi. During a follow-up of nearly seven years, 112 people developed heart failure. The results showed that larger waist circumference increased heart failure risk by 31%, and higher waist-to-height ratio increased risk by 27%. Researchers also found that inflammation explains a quarter to a third of the link between excess belly fat and heart failure.
- The study was presented at an American Heart Association meeting in Boston on March 18, 2026.
- The study tracked participants over a follow-up period of nearly seven years.
The players
Szu-Han Chen
A medical student at National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University in Taiwan and the lead researcher on the study.
Sadiya Khan
A professor of cardiovascular epidemiology at Northwestern University in Chicago who reviewed the study findings.
What they’re saying
“This research helps us understand why some people develop heart failure despite having a body weight that seems healthy.”
— Szu-Han Chen, Lead researcher
“By monitoring waist size and inflammation, clinicians may be able to identify people with higher risk earlier and focus on prevention strategies that could reduce the chance of heart failure before symptoms begin.”
— Szu-Han Chen, Lead researcher
“This study highlights the importance of integrating measures of central adiposity such as waist circumference into routine preventive care. Understanding upstream drivers of heart failure risk including central adiposity is key to recognizing and modifying risk.”
— Sadiya Khan, Professor of cardiovascular epidemiology
What’s next
Researchers said future study should look into how belly fat and inflammation influence heart failure, and whether reducing inflammation might help prevent the condition.
The takeaway
This study suggests that measuring waist circumference and monitoring for inflammation may be more effective than relying solely on BMI to assess heart failure risk, particularly for Black adults. Identifying these risk factors earlier could allow for more targeted prevention strategies to reduce the burden of heart failure.


