U.S. Risks Miscalculating Iran's Escalation Potential

Washington's military pressure and diplomatic overtures may backfire as Iran's deterrence strategy shifts to focus on endurance over control.

Published on Feb. 23, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The article argues that the U.S. is dangerously misreading Iran's strategic calculus and escalation potential as tensions rise. While the U.S. sees military pressure as a means of diplomatic leverage, Iran increasingly views conflict as a challenge of ideological survival. The author warns that a limited U.S. strike on Iran is unlikely to force concessions, and could instead accelerate Iran's unification around a wartime mindset, leading to unpredictable horizontal escalation across multiple fronts in the region.

Why it matters

The U.S. and Iran appear to be speaking in entirely different strategic languages, with the U.S. relying on calibrated force and coercive diplomacy while Iran shifts towards a deterrence strategy focused on endurance and ideological resistance. This disconnect raises the risk of miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation that could spiral into a wider regional conflict.

The details

The article traces how Iran's provision of Shahed drones to Russia during the Ukraine war marked a turning point in its grand strategy, demonstrating its willingness to shape events far beyond its borders. This, combined with Iran's expanding arsenal of ballistic/cruise missiles, cyber warfare capabilities, and regional proxy networks, suggests its deterrence is based on persistence rather than precision. The author argues that once escalation begins on the grounds of existential threat, the boundaries become increasingly fluid, as weaker deterrence systems can become less restrained.

  • In 2022, Iran provided thousands of Shahed drones to Russia during the Ukraine invasion.
  • In June 2025, Israel launched its latest war against Iran just as Washington and Tehran were about to engage in another round of nuclear talks.

The players

Iran

A large country with widely spread military capabilities, including ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, cyber warfare, and regional proxy networks, that is shifting its deterrence strategy to focus on endurance over control.

United States

Approaching the current crisis with Iran through the lens of calibrated force and coercive diplomacy, seeing military pressure as a means of diplomatic leverage.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The Iranian Supreme Leader who has moved away from 'tactical restraint' and started using the language of 'confrontation through the lens of Karbala', a Shiite moral and political code that glorifies resistance in the face of existential threat.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The message was clear: Iran had started fighting a new kind of war, one focused on endurance instead of control.”

— Ali Hashem, Author (foreignpolicy.com)

“By referencing historical tyrants such as Yazid, Nimrod, and Egyptian pharaohs, the Iranian leader makes it clear that the Islamic Republic's legitimacy is increasingly based on resistance rather than capitulation.”

— Ali Hashem, Author (foreignpolicy.com)

The takeaway

The U.S. and Iran appear to be on a collision course, with the U.S. relying on military pressure and coercive diplomacy while Iran shifts towards a deterrence strategy focused on ideological resistance and endurance. This disconnect raises the risk of miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation that could spiral into a wider regional conflict, as Iran's response to any limited U.S. strike may be driven more by the need to maintain moral legitimacy than by a desire for proportional retaliation.