March Madness Underdogs: 3 Best Bets for Round 1

Jason Logan breaks down his top underdog picks to cover the spread in the opening round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Mar. 18, 2026 at 3:43am

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With 17 double-digit favorites in the Round of 64, finding value in March Madness underdogs could be key. Our expert analyst Jason Logan shares his three favorite underdog picks to cover the spread in the first round, including Saint Louis, VCU, and TCU.

Why it matters

Upsets are the lifeblood of March Madness, and savvy bettors can capitalize on inflated point spreads for underdog teams. These three underdog picks offer strong value against their higher-seeded opponents, providing an opportunity to potentially cash in on the unpredictable nature of the NCAA Tournament.

The details

Logan highlights key factors working in favor of each underdog, from Saint Louis' strong 3-point shooting and defensive play against high-scoring Georgia, to VCU' s aggressive style and UNC' s recent struggles on the road, to TCU' s opportunistic defense and resume of quality wins against Ohio State.

  • The Saint Louis vs. Georgia game tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET on Thursday.
  • The VCU vs. North Carolina game tips off at 6:50 p.m. ET on Thursday.
  • The TCU vs. Ohio State game tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET on Thursday.

The players

Saint Louis Billikens

A high-scoring team that plays strong defense and shoots the 3-ball well, making them a dangerous underdog against the up-tempo Georgia Bulldogs.

VCU Rams

A scrappy, defensive-minded team that has been battle-tested down the stretch, poised to pull off an upset over the struggling North Carolina Tar Heels.

TCU Horned Frogs

A team playing its best basketball of the season, with a resume featuring quality wins and the ability to force turnovers and capitalize on them, giving them an edge over the Ohio State Buckeyes.

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What they’re saying

“Upsets are how March Madness got its name. But for sports bettors, we don't need a No. 15 seed to knock off a No. 2. We just need these March Madness underdogs to cover the spread.”

— Jason Logan (covers.com)

“The North Carolina Tar Heels are in trouble.”

— Jason Logan (covers.com)

“Perhaps the biggest nod to TCU is its resume, which features wins over Florida, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Iowa State, and a close loss to Michigan.”

— Jason Logan (covers.com)

What’s next

Bettors will want to monitor injury news and potential lineup changes leading up to the first round games, as that could impact the value of these underdog picks.

The takeaway

With a top-heavy field in this year's NCAA Tournament, finding the right underdog bets could be the key to cashing in on March Madness. These three teams - Saint Louis, VCU, and TCU - present compelling cases to cover the spread and potentially pull off outright upsets in the opening round.