5 Best Upset Picks For the First Round of Your NCAA Tournament Bracket

March Madness is here, which means you need help with your bracket. Here are upset picks for the NCAA Tournament's first round.

Mar. 16, 2026 at 11:51pm

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With the men's NCAA Tournament beginning this week, it's time to fill out your bracket. While it's tempting to go with the favorites, the true draw of March Madness is the potential for upsets. This article provides five upset picks for the first round of the tournament, including No. 13 California Baptist over No. 4 Kansas, No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina, No. 10 UCF over No. 7 UCLA, No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville, and No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Miami.

Why it matters

Picking the right upsets can make or break your NCAA Tournament bracket. While the top seeds are usually safe bets, the first round is where Cinderella stories often begin. Correctly identifying potential upsets can give your bracket a significant advantage over others.

The details

The article breaks down the reasoning behind each of the five upset picks. For example, it highlights concerns about the health of Kansas' star player Darryn Peterson, North Carolina's injury to Caleb Wilson, and Louisville's point guard Mikel Brown Jr.'s uncertain status. It also notes trends in upset history, such as 11 seeds often defeating 6 seeds and 10 seeds frequently upsetting 7 seeds.

  • The men's NCAA Tournament begins with the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the first round tips off on Thursday and Friday.

The players

Darryn Peterson

A top-3 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft who has an argument as the nation's most talented player, but his health has been shaky all season.

Caleb Wilson

An All-ACC First Team member who led North Carolina in several statistical categories, but suffered a season-ending thumb injury.

Mikel Brown Jr.

Louisville's freshman point guard who has been out since Feb. 28 with a reaggravated back injury.

Mark Mitchell

Missouri's 6-foot-9 guard who could be a key factor in the Tigers' potential upset over Miami.

Malik Reneau

Miami's 6-foot-9 forward who will likely be matched up against Missouri's Mark Mitchell.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

The takeaway

Picking the right upsets in the NCAA Tournament can give your bracket a significant advantage over others. While the top seeds are usually safe bets, the first round is where Cinderella stories often begin. By carefully analyzing injury concerns, historical trends, and key player matchups, you can identify potential upsets that could make or break your tournament predictions.