Severe Storm Threat for Southern Illinois, St. Louis this Week

NOAA warns of increased risk for strong thunderstorms on Thursday

Published on Feb. 17, 2026

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NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued an increased risk for severe thunderstorms in southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois, including the St. Louis area, later this week on Thursday. The region is now under a 15% risk area for storms that could bring strong winds, lightning, and the potential for tornadoes.

Why it matters

Severe weather in February is unusual for the region, and residents will need to be prepared for the possibility of dangerous storms that could cause power outages, property damage, and disrupt travel and daily activities.

The details

According to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, the southeastern tip of Missouri extending into southern Illinois and as far east as Ohio are now in the 15% risk area for severe thunderstorms. This means there is a 15% probability for storms with the potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes within 25 miles of any given location.

  • The severe weather threat is expected on Thursday, February 20, 2026.

The players

NOAA Storm Prediction Center

The federal agency responsible for monitoring and forecasting severe weather conditions across the United States.

Ryan Hall

A digital meteorologist who has mentioned the growing potential for severe weather development in the region this week.

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What they’re saying

“a depicted severe weather area indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.”

— NOAA Storm Prediction Center (979kickfm.com)

What’s next

The Storm Prediction Center may update the risk potential for the region as Thursday approaches.

The takeaway

Residents in southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois, including the St. Louis area, should closely monitor weather forecasts and be prepared to take shelter if severe thunderstorms develop on Thursday. This late-winter severe weather event is a reminder that extreme weather can occur at any time of year.