Cardinals Projected for 77-85 Record in 2026

Experts see St. Louis finishing 4th in NL Central next season

Published on Feb. 7, 2026

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According to the latest projections, the St. Louis Cardinals are expected to finish the 2026 season with a 77-85 record, placing them fourth in the National League Central division. This forecast comes from FanGraphs' ZiPS projections as well as odds from betting sites like FanDuel, which have the Cardinals pegged as a 70-71 win team for the upcoming year.

Why it matters

The Cardinals' projected struggles in 2026 come as a disappointment to fans who had hoped the team would make big moves to become perennial contenders. However, the projections reflect the reality that the Cardinals may need more time to rebuild their roster and develop young talent before becoming a serious playoff threat again.

The details

The author admits it's difficult to separate emotions from realistic expectations when predicting the Cardinals' 2026 performance. While the team has made some big offseason moves, the projections suggest they are still a few years away from being a true contender. The author's own prediction is a 76-86 record, which he acknowledges may be optimistic once the Brendan Donovan trade is factored in. The author outlines a 'daydream' scenario where several young Cardinals players have breakout seasons, but concedes this is an unlikely outcome.

  • The latest ZiPS projections from FanGraphs were shared a week and a half ago.
  • Odds from FanDuel and other betting sites were posted before the Brendan Donovan trade.

The players

Chaim Bloom

The executive who has made many roster moves for the Cardinals this offseason.

Jordan Walker

A Cardinals prospect who would need to live up to his potential for the team to exceed expectations.

Nolan Gorman

Another Cardinals prospect who would need a breakout season for the team to surprise.

JJ Wetherholt

A Cardinals prospect who would need to be a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate.

Michael McGreevy

A Cardinals pitching prospect who would need to take a big step forward.

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What they’re saying

“While I believe that many are very satisfied with what Chaim Bloom has accomplished with his many roster moves during the offseason, we're about to begin the 2026 season with some fear and trepidation about how competitive or not the St. Louis Cardinals will be.”

— doc-holliday, Author (vivaelbirdos.com)

“My prediction is a 76-86 St. Louis Cardinals team that will be fortunate to finish above the Pittsburgh Pirates. I think that will look optimistic once the new projections are done post-Brendan Donovan trade, but I'm overall bullish on this team.”

— doc-holliday, Author (vivaelbirdos.com)

What’s next

The author plans to revisit the Cardinals' 2026 outlook once the team breaks camp after Spring Training.

The takeaway

The Cardinals' projected struggles in 2026 highlight the reality that the team may need more time to rebuild and develop their young talent before becoming a serious playoff contender again, despite high hopes from fans for the team to make big moves this offseason.