Royals Closer Carlos Estevez Struggles With Velocity Drop

Early season concerns over Estevez's declining pitch speeds could spell trouble for Kansas City's bullpen.

Mar. 29, 2026 at 1:07pm

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Kansas City Royals closer Carlos Estevez is off to a concerning start in 2026, with his fastball velocity down nearly 5 mph from last season. His slider and changeup have also lost significant speed, leading to changes in their movement profiles. While it's still early, these velocity drops could make it difficult for Estevez to be as effective as he was in 2025, which could spell trouble for a Royals team hoping to compete in the AL Central.

Why it matters

The Royals are hoping to contend this season, and a steady closer is crucial to their success. Estevez's struggles with velocity could undermine the team's bullpen if they continue, potentially costing Kansas City valuable wins in a tight divisional race.

The details

Through the early part of the 2026 season, Estevez's fastball velocity has dropped from an average of 95.9 mph in 2025 to just 91.2 mph. His slider has gone from 87.3 mph to 83.5 mph, while his changeup has declined from 87.9 mph to 82.3 mph. These velocity drops have altered the movement profiles of his offspeed pitches, with his slider moving more vertically and less horizontally.

  • The velocity declines were first observed in Estevez's first few appearances of the 2026 season.

The players

Carlos Estevez

The Kansas City Royals' closer, who had a strong 2025 season but is struggling with decreased pitch velocities early in 2026.

Dominic Smith

The Atlanta Braves player who hit a walk-off grand slam off Estevez on Saturday night, handing the Royals a dramatic loss.

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What they’re saying

“If he can't start to pick up his velocity, it might be tough for him to be as effective out of the Kansas City bullpen as he was last season. And for a team hoping to compete in the AL Central, the closer spot has to be steady, not erratic.”

— Billy Heyen, Author

What’s next

The Royals will be closely monitoring Estevez's velocity and performance in his next few outings to see if this is a lingering issue or just an early-season blip.

The takeaway

Estevez's sudden velocity drop is a major concern for the Royals, as they need a reliable closer to anchor their bullpen and help the team compete in the AL Central. If Estevez can't regain his 2025 form, it could seriously undermine Kansas City's playoff hopes.