Chiefs' Projected 2026 Win Total Raises Concerns in AFC

Despite a down 2025 season, the Chiefs are expected to bounce back strong in 2026.

Feb. 26, 2026 at 4:39pm

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According to CBS Sports' R.J. White, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected to have a 10.5 win total in the 2026 NFL season, putting them on par with the Los Angeles Chargers. This suggests the Chiefs, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, are expected to quickly rebound from their 6-11 record in 2025 and once again be a top contender in the AFC.

Why it matters

The Chiefs' projected high win total for 2026 is seen as a "horror scenario" for the rest of the AFC, as it would mean Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are back to being one of the league's elite teams after a rare down year. This raises concerns for other AFC teams who were hoping Kansas City would take a step back and allow someone else to compete for the division title and conference championship.

The details

Despite Mahomes' ACL injury and other roster questions, the projections have the Chiefs winning 10.5 games in 2026, which would likely make them AFC West champions again and put them back in Super Bowl contention. This comes after the Chiefs stumbled to a 6-11 record in 2025, missing the playoffs for the first time since Mahomes became the starting quarterback.

  • The Chiefs' 2025 season saw them go 6-11 and miss the playoffs.
  • CBS Sports' R.J. White has projected the Chiefs to win 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL season.

The players

Patrick Mahomes

The starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, who has led the team to the AFC Championship game every year since becoming the starter, except for their 6-11 season in 2025.

R.J. White

A writer for CBS Sports who projected the Chiefs to have a 10.5 win total in the 2026 NFL season.

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The takeaway

The Chiefs' projected bounce-back in 2026 is seen as a major concern for the rest of the AFC, as it would mean Patrick Mahomes and the perennial contenders are likely to retake their spot atop the conference after a rare down year. This raises questions about whether any other team in the AFC will be able to challenge Kansas City's dominance in the coming years.