New poll shows tight race for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District

Democratic challenger Jake Johnson within 3 points of GOP incumbent Brad Finstad

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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A new poll conducted by Democratic-aligned group Public Policy Polling shows the race for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District is tightening, with Democratic challenger Jake Johnson within 3 points of Republican incumbent Brad Finstad, 44% to 41%, with 15% of voters undecided. The poll also found that 48% of voters believe it's time for someone new, compared to 35% who think Finstad deserves re-election.

Why it matters

The 1st District has historically leaned Republican, with Finstad winning his last two elections comfortably. However, this new poll suggests the race could be more competitive than expected, potentially signaling a shift in voter sentiment in the district. The results come amid a broader political environment that has seen some recent Democratic victories in traditionally Republican strongholds.

The details

The poll surveyed 708 registered voters in the 1st District and had a 3.7% margin of error. Among undecided voters, 50% said it's time for someone new, compared to 29% who think Finstad deserves re-election. Finstad's campaign said they have maintained a fundraising advantage and are confident the Congressman will be re-elected, while Johnson's campaign manager said the fundraising numbers show Johnson is within striking distance.

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The players

Brad Finstad

Republican Congressman representing Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, having won the seat in a special election in 2022 and his last two regular elections.

Jake Johnson

Democratic challenger for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, who raised $750,000 in campaign funds as of the end of 2025.

Public Policy Polling

A polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party that conducted the new poll showing Johnson within 3 points of Finstad.

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What they’re saying

“The people of southern Minnesota know they aren't being served well in Congress. While our costs go up and our jobs go away, we have a congressman who won't even hold a town hall to hear about our concerns. But somehow he always has time for corporate CEOs and lobbyists who bankroll his campaigns. I'm running for Congress to change all of that and start rebuilding the American Dreams for the next generation.”

— Jake Johnson (Press statement)

“Congressman Finstad works hard for southern Minnesota, and for the last three primaries and three general elections, the people of the 1st Congressional District have affirmed they want Congressman Finstad to represent them. We have maintained a fundraising advantage and have strong support across the district. We are very confident that Minnesota's 1st will re-elect Congressman Finstad again this year.”

— Finstad campaign spokesperson (Statement)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This poll suggests the race for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District could be more competitive than expected, with the Democratic challenger gaining ground on the Republican incumbent. It highlights the potential for political shifts in traditionally Republican strongholds and the importance of voter sentiment in shaping election outcomes.