Trump Approval Hits New Low as Polling Guru Nate Silver Warns of 'Profound Problems'

Silver says the president's numbers keep trending down, with his approval rating falling below 40% for the first time in his second term.

Mar. 30, 2026 at 9:38pm

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A quiet, cinematic painting of a solitary political office space with a lone desk and chair, bathed in warm, diagonal sunlight and deep shadows, conceptually representing the president's political troubles.The president's plummeting approval ratings signal deeper political challenges ahead.Minneapolis Today

President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to its lowest-ever second term mark, according to polling expert Nate Silver. Silver says Trump now has 'profound problems' even with his base MAGA voters, with only 22% of Americans having a strongly favorable view of the president. The decline is attributed to a range of factors, including the impact of the Iran War on gas prices, Trump's self-inflicted economic wounds like the tariffs, and erosion of support even among his core supporters.

Why it matters

Trump's plummeting approval ratings could spell trouble for the president and his party as the 2028 election cycle approaches. With 2028 aspirants starting to pull away from him, and signs of erosion among his base, Trump's political future appears increasingly uncertain.

The details

Silver's analysis shows Trump's approval rating has fallen below 40% for the first time in his second term, hitting a new low of 39.7%. His net approval rating is also at a new low of -17.4, down about 5 points over the past several weeks. Silver says the decline is not due to just one factor, but a range of issues including the impact of the Iran War on gas prices, which have risen by more than a dollar per gallon over the past month. The president's self-inflicted economic wounds, like the tariffs, have also taken a toll, as have specific events like the fatal shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by ICE agents in Minneapolis.

  • Trump's approval rating has been on a 'remarkably linear' decline throughout his second term, with 'peaks and valleys' that correlate with particular news events.
  • In the latest update to Silver's ongoing poll tracking, Trump's numbers hit a new low, falling below 40% for the first time in his second term.

The players

Nate Silver

A prominent polling expert and the founder of the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.

Donald Trump

The 45th President of the United States, currently serving his second term.

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What they’re saying

“Trump has profound problems. There *are* signs of erosion among his base. Only 22% of Americans have a *strongly* favorable view of Trump. 2028 aspirants are starting to pull away from him. One wonders about the effect of his age, too.”

— Nate Silver, Polling Expert

“Obviously, gas prices are a big factor. But Trump has profound problems.”

— Nate Silver, Polling Expert

What’s next

With Trump's approval ratings continuing to decline, political observers will be closely watching how the president and his party respond in the lead-up to the 2028 election cycle. The erosion of support even among his core base could signal deeper challenges ahead.

The takeaway

Nate Silver's analysis highlights the multifaceted nature of Trump's political troubles, from the impact of external events like the Iran War to self-inflicted wounds like his economic policies. The president's declining approval, even among his staunchest supporters, raises serious questions about his political future and the direction of the Republican Party.