Voter Confidence in Fair Midterm Elections Declines

Survey finds partisan divide over mail-in ballots, non-citizen voting, and ICE presence at polls

Published on Feb. 19, 2026

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A new survey from the UC San Diego Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections found that only 60% of Americans are confident that votes in the 2026 midterm elections will be counted accurately, down 17 points from the 2024 presidential election. The decline in trust was seen across party lines, with independents expressing the lowest confidence at 57%. Concerns centered on mail-in ballots, non-citizen voting, and potential ICE presence at polling locations, especially among Hispanic and Black voters.

Why it matters

Declining trust in the integrity of elections is a concerning trend that could undermine the democratic process and lead to increased polarization. The findings highlight the need for bipartisan efforts to strengthen election security and transparency to restore public confidence.

The details

The survey of over 11,000 eligible voters found that Republicans' top concerns were about mail-in ballots and non-citizens voting, with about half expressing skepticism on those issues. Independents shared similar concerns, while only 20% of Democrats distrusted mail-in ballots and 11% were skeptical about non-citizen voting. The survey also found that about one-third of voters across parties thought it was likely that ICE officers would be present at polling locations, with Hispanic and Black voters expressing the greatest concern about potential intimidation.

  • The survey was conducted between December 19 and January 12, 2026.

The players

UC San Diego Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections

A research center that conducted the survey on voter confidence in the 2026 midterm elections.

President Trump

Has made unsubstantiated claims that mail-in ballots and non-citizen voting contributed to fraud in the 2020 presidential election.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.)

Expressed concern that ICE officers could be used to intimidate voters at polling stations.

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What’s next

The survey findings could prompt further scrutiny of election security measures and potential voter intimidation tactics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The takeaway

The declining trust in the fairness of elections across party lines underscores the need for bipartisan efforts to strengthen election integrity and transparency, in order to restore public confidence in the democratic process.