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United Airlines Braces for Prolonged Oil Crisis
CEO warns of flight cuts and higher fares as fuel prices double from the Iran war blockade.
Mar. 22, 2026 at 9:37pm
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With oil prices spiking due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has warned employees that the airline is preparing for a prolonged oil crisis. Kirby said United's plans assume oil will reach $175 per barrel and not return to $100 per barrel until the end of 2027, leading the airline to cut 5% of its planned flight schedule in the second and third quarters of this year.
Why it matters
United's moves are seen as an economic canary in the coal mine, as the airline industry's belt-tightening in response to soaring fuel costs could signal wider economic impacts across industries and consumers if the oil crisis persists.
The details
Jet fuel accounts for 25-33% of airlines' operating costs, and prices have doubled from $70 to $140 per barrel since the start of the Iran war four weeks ago. United plans to trim flights, especially during off-peak periods like redeyes and less popular travel days, in an effort to manage the higher fuel expenses.
- The Iran war and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz started 4 weeks ago.
- United's flight cuts are planned for the second and third quarters of 2026.
The players
United Airlines
A major U.S. airline that is preparing for a prolonged oil crisis by cutting flights and capacity.
Scott Kirby
The CEO of United Airlines who warned employees about the airline's plans to deal with high fuel prices.
What they’re saying
“Our plans assume oil goes to $175/barrel and doesn't get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.”
— Scott Kirby, CEO
What’s next
If oil prices remain elevated, United may need to make further adjustments to its flight schedule and operations.
The takeaway
The airline industry's response to the oil crisis, including United's planned flight cuts, is an early indicator of the broader economic impacts that could ripple through the economy if high fuel prices persist.
