Jay Bilas Leaves Duke Out of Final Four Picks

ESPN analyst and former Blue Devil player doubts his alma mater's chances of reaching the 2026 NCAA Tournament's Final Four.

Mar. 18, 2026 at 2:19am

Jay Bilas, a former Duke player and current ESPN analyst, is not picking his alma mater to reach the 2026 NCAA Tournament's Final Four. Instead, Bilas is selecting Arizona, Michigan State, Iowa State, and Illinois to make it to the sport's biggest stage, citing Duke's recent injuries and the difficulty of their region.

Why it matters

Bilas' picks are notable because he is a Duke alum and has typically been bullish on the Blue Devils' tournament chances in the past. His doubts about Duke's ability to reach the Final Four this year could signal a shift in the program's perceived dominance and the overall parity in college basketball.

The details

Bilas explained his reasoning, saying Duke is dealing with a "couple of injuries" and has been placed in the "most difficult region." He believes Michigan State's experience will be enough to overcome the Blue Devils, even though he thinks Duke is the better team. Bilas also noted that the tournament's one-and-done format makes it harder for the top seeds to advance compared to a seven-game series.

  • Duke won the ACC Tournament on March 12, 2026, defeating Virginia 84-70.
  • The 2026 NCAA Tournament's First Round begins on March 20, 2026, with Duke facing Siena.

The players

Jay Bilas

A former Duke player and current ESPN college basketball analyst who is not picking his alma mater to reach the 2026 NCAA Tournament's Final Four.

Duke University

A top college basketball program that is currently a No. 1 seed in the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

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What they’re saying

“You know Duke's got a couple of injuries that they're dealing with right now, and I do think in all seriousness, I think they got the most difficult region.”

— Jay Bilas, ESPN Analyst

“Michigan State's really experienced, and I kind of went with that even though Duke is a better team. If it were a seven-game series, I'd take Duke and Michigan to win their regions, but it's not, it's a one-game and out thing.”

— Jay Bilas, ESPN Analyst

What’s next

Duke will face Siena in the First Round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on March 20, 2026.

The takeaway

Bilas' doubts about Duke's chances to reach the Final Four this year could signal a shift in the perception of the Blue Devils' dominance, as college basketball continues to see increased parity across the sport.