GM Poised to Weather Economic Downturn, Analyst Says

Citi analyst sees GM's improved cost structure, product lineup, and balance sheet as key advantages.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 11:07am

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An extreme close-up of the textured, pebbled metal surface of a GM vehicle's chassis, lit dramatically to highlight the intricate patterns and raw materials that make up the vehicle's structure.GM's robust financial foundation and streamlined operations may help the automaker weather an economic downturn better than in the past.Today in Detroit

Despite a challenging environment for the auto industry, with US auto sales declining over 6% in the first quarter, Citi analyst Michael Ward believes GM is well-positioned to navigate an economic slowdown. Ward cited GM's reduced breakeven level in North America, exit from Europe, improved product and capacity footprint, working capital efficiencies, and dividend income from subsidiaries as providing the company flexibility to invest in the business and return cash to shareholders.

Why it matters

The auto industry is facing headwinds from elevated interest rates, rising vehicle prices, and geopolitical uncertainty, but GM's resilient performance in 2025 and improved financial position suggest it may be better equipped than rivals to weather a potential downturn.

The details

GM delivered a strong performance in 2025, leading the US auto industry in total sales for the second consecutive year with 2.85 million vehicles sold, a 6% increase over 2024. The company reported full-year operating profits of $12.7 billion and $10.6 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow, meeting the high end of its guidance despite industry headwinds. This success was driven by its internal combustion engine portfolio, particularly its full-size pickups and SUVs.

  • GM reported full-year 2025 results in early 2026.
  • The company has guided to adjusted earnings of $11 to $13 per share for 2026.

The players

General Motors (GM)

A major American automobile manufacturer headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.

Michael Ward

A Citi analyst who covers General Motors and has a Buy rating and $105 price target on the stock.

Ford (F)

A major American automobile manufacturer and a rival to General Motors.

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What they’re saying

“Unlike past cyclical recoveries, GM's cost structure, product lineup and balance sheet are in good shape, in our view, without the capital needs for restructuring.”

— Michael Ward, Citi Analyst

What’s next

Eyes will now turn to GM's earnings release in a few weeks and whether it cuts the optimistic full-year guidance it shared back in January.

The takeaway

GM's improved financial position, including a reduced breakeven level, exit from Europe, and working capital efficiencies, appear to provide the company with more flexibility to navigate an economic slowdown compared to past downturns. This could give GM an advantage over rivals like Ford as the industry faces headwinds.