Uncertainty Looms Over U.S. Trade Policy in 2026

Supreme Court case and USMCA talks cloud the outlook for tariffs and trade agreements.

Published on Feb. 20, 2026

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A year after the Trump administration imposed sweeping new tariffs, the trade landscape in 2026 remains uncertain. Experts warn that a pending Supreme Court case challenging the tariffs and an upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) could lead to further policy shifts and chaos for businesses.

Why it matters

The unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration has created significant uncertainty for companies, forcing them to constantly reevaluate their sourcing and supply chains. This volatility has also taken an economic toll, with research showing that American businesses and consumers have borne the brunt of the tariffs rather than other countries.

The details

In 2025, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on China, which was followed by an aggressive run of new duties targeting China, Canada, and Mexico. While the pace of new tariff announcements slowed in the latter half of 2025, the bigger issue is the whiplash effect of a White House that has shown a willingness to use tariffs for reasons beyond traditional trade policy, according to experts.

  • In February 2025, the U.S. had imposed a 10% tariff on China.
  • In the spring of 2025, the administration imposed what it called 'Liberation Day' levies.
  • In November 2025, a lawsuit challenging the majority of Trump's tariffs was presented to the Supreme Court.
  • The USMCA review is set to take place in July 2026.

The players

Chad Bown

A senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics who warned about the continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy in 2026.

Donald Trump

The President who has aggressively deployed tariffs, including calling the USMCA deal "irrelevant" and reportedly considering withdrawing from the pact altogether.

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What they’re saying

“Some of the tariffs you can motivate as potentially being important parts of U.S. government policy for national security resilience, but a lot of them don't necessarily make a whole lot of economic sense.”

— Chad Bown, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (supplychainbrain.com)

“Watching how all of that plays out over the course of 2026 will be important.”

— Chad Bown, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (supplychainbrain.com)

What’s next

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the lawsuit challenging Trump's tariffs, which could force the Treasury Department to refund billions in tariff revenue collected over the past year. Additionally, the USMCA review in July 2026 could lead to further changes in U.S. trade policy.

The takeaway

The unpredictable and shifting nature of U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration has created significant uncertainty for businesses, forcing them to constantly adapt their sourcing and supply chains. This volatility has also taken an economic toll, with American companies and consumers bearing the brunt of the tariffs rather than other countries.