Baltimore and D.C. See Steep Declines in Violent Crime Over Decade

Experts say broader national trends, not just local policies, are driving the reductions in homicides, robberies, and other violent offenses.

Apr. 3, 2026 at 2:26pm

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New data shows that total violent crimes in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore City decreased significantly over the past decade, with homicides falling by 60% and 21% respectively since 2015. While local officials credit their administrations' policies, criminologists say the decreases are likely the result of a mix of demographic and technology shifts, not just policy changes.

Why it matters

The dramatic declines in violent crime in these two major East Coast cities are part of a broader national trend, raising questions about the factors driving these reductions and whether local policies or broader societal changes are more responsible.

The details

In Baltimore, homicides fell by 61% from 2015 to 2025, reaching a 50-year low of 133 last year. Rape decreased by 7%, robberies by 46%, and aggravated assaults increased slightly by 5%. In Washington, D.C., homicides dropped 21% since 2015, sex abuse incidents fell 69%, robberies decreased 60%, and assaults with a weapon declined 61%. However, the accuracy of D.C.'s crime data has been called into question by a Congressional investigation.

  • In 2023, Washington, D.C. saw its deadliest year for homicides in the last decade, with 274 deaths.
  • From 2023 to 2024, homicides in Washington, D.C. fell 32%, and then dropped an additional 32% in 2025 - a total decline of 54% from the 2023 spike.

The players

Ernesto Lopez

A criminologist at the Council on Criminal Justice, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank that studies crime.

Zubin Jelveh

An assistant professor at the University of Maryland who analyzes crime data.

Jillian Snider

Resident senior fellow in criminal justice and civil liberties at the R Street Institute, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington.

Muriel Bowser

The mayor of Washington, D.C.

Brandon Scott

The mayor of Baltimore.

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What they’re saying

“Downstream' trends, like age and gentrification, can mix with shorter-term 'rapid' trends, including changes to policing or 'shocks to the social fabric' like the COVID-19 pandemic.”

— Ernesto Lopez, Criminologist

“The national trend sort of swamps the local for the most part.”

— Zubin Jelveh, Assistant Professor

“When you have a targeted, community-based program in a place where there is tension with law enforcement, 'people that are embedded in the community are going to really be the force multipliers behind this interruption before shootings happen.' I think that's huge.”

— Jillian Snider, Resident Senior Fellow

What’s next

The U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is continuing its investigation into allegations that the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Police Department reclassified serious crimes as lesser offenses to produce lower crime rates during the former Police Chief Pamela Smith's tenure from 2023 to 2025.

The takeaway

While local officials in Baltimore and Washington, D.C. have touted their crime-reduction strategies, experts say the steep declines in violent crime over the past decade are likely driven by broader national trends, such as demographic shifts and changes in policing tactics, rather than just specific local policies. Addressing underlying socioeconomic factors like education and income inequality could provide longer-term solutions to reducing crime in these cities.