Stronger European Model Trend Challenges Sunday Night Snow Forecast

Meteorologist warns of potential for heavy snow as models diverge on storm track

Published on Feb. 27, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Meteorologist Justin Berk is closely monitoring a developing winter storm system that could bring significant snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night. While the American GFS model has been forecasting blockbuster snow totals, the more reliable European ECMWF model has shifted the storm track closer to the coast, potentially increasing snow potential. Berk is hesitant to fully embrace the higher snow forecast, citing model uncertainty and the need to see the overnight model runs before making a final call.

Why it matters

This storm has the potential to be a major winter weather event for the region, with the possibility of heavy snow accumulations that could disrupt travel and daily activities. The divergence between the GFS and ECMWF models highlights the challenges meteorologists face in accurately predicting complex winter storms, especially in the final days before an event.

The details

The European model's latest 18Z run showed a deeper trough and brought the surface low pressure system about 600 miles closer to the coast, which would result in more snow for the area. This is a shift from the model's previous runs, which had the low pressure system tracking farther offshore. Berk is hesitant to put too much stock in the off-hour model runs, as they can sometimes be less reliable than the full 12Z or 00Z runs that incorporate more comprehensive weather data.

  • The storm system is currently onshore in California and will track across the US to redevelop off the East Coast on Sunday.
  • NOAA's Hazardous Weather Outlook expanded the potential for heavy snow to include almost all of Maryland on Thursday.

The players

Justin Berk

A meteorologist who operates the justinweather.com website and is closely monitoring the developing winter storm.

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the potential of heavy snow in the region.

GFS Model

The American Global Forecast System model, which has been consistently showing a coastal bomb cyclone that would bring blockbuster snow totals.

ECMWF Model

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, which has shifted the storm track closer to the coast in its latest run, potentially increasing snow potential.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“I have NOT supported the GFS and only showed it for full contrast.”

— Justin Berk, Meteorologist (justinweather.com)

What’s next

The overnight 00Z model data will be crucial in determining if the European model's trend towards a stronger, closer-to-the-coast storm is sustained or was just a temporary blip. Berk plans to address any significant model trends in his morning report.

The takeaway

This storm highlights the challenges meteorologists face in accurately predicting complex winter weather events, especially in the final days before a system arrives. The divergence between the GFS and ECMWF models underscores the need for caution and continued monitoring as the forecast evolves.