Experts Debunk Chart Linking Transgender People to Mass Shootings

Data does not accurately reflect crime statistics, say criminology experts.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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A chart that frames transgender people as responsible for more mass shootings than any other demographic group has resurfaced online, but experts say the data does not accurately depict crime statistics. Criminology professors and data analysts have criticized the chart's methodology and conclusions, noting that the sample size is too small, the definitions are flawed, and the per-capita rates are misleading. They emphasize that the vast majority of mass shootings in the U.S. are committed by cisgender men.

Why it matters

The chart perpetuates harmful and stigmatizing tropes about transgender people, scapegoating a vulnerable community for high-profile crimes. Experts warn that this type of misinformation can contribute to discrimination and violence against LGBTQ+ individuals.

The details

The chart in question was first posted on X in 2025 by user Frank McCormick, who claimed it showed the racial and gender identities of perpetrators of mass shootings. However, criminology experts say the data is flawed and does not accurately reflect crime statistics. For example, the Gun Violence Archive has identified only 5 cases out of over 5,000 mass shootings where the perpetrator was transgender, a rate of just 0.1%. Experts also note that the chart makes faulty assumptions about the transgender population in the U.S. and improperly compares gender identity to race.

  • The chart was first posted on X in August 2025.
  • A variation of the chart was shared on X on February 17, 2026.
  • The chart resurfaced online in February 2026 following mass shootings in Canada and the U.S.

The players

Frank McCormick

A X user who originally posted the chart in August 2025 and later shared a variation in February 2026.

Aaron Chalfin

Associate professor of criminology at the University of Pennsylvania, who told AFP that "it is plainly obvious that most US shootings are not being done by people who are transgender."

Mark Bryant

Founding executive director of the Gun Violence Archive, which has tracked only 5 cases of mass shootings by transgender perpetrators out of over 5,000 incidents.

Jing Cao

Chair of the department of statistics and data science at Southern Methodist University, who criticized the chart's flawed methodology and unstable per-capita rates.

GLAAD

An LGBTQ media advocacy organization that told AFP the chart perpetuates "irrational fear and focus on scapegoating vulnerable communities" following violent events.

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What they’re saying

“It is plainly obvious that most US shootings are not being done by people who are transgender.”

— Aaron Chalfin, Associate professor of criminology

“As you can see, that gives us a rate of 5/5000, or 1/10, of 1 percent of mass shootings.”

— Mark Bryant, Founding executive director of the Gun Violence Archive

“The 'statistics' being reported are absolute fabrications.”

— Ty Partridge, Director of Wayne State University's research, design and analysis unit

The takeaway

Experts warn that the misleading chart perpetuates harmful stereotypes and stigma against the transgender community, despite the data clearly showing that the vast majority of mass shootings in the U.S. are committed by cisgender men. This type of misinformation can contribute to discrimination and violence against LGBTQ+ individuals.