NBA Proposes Drastic Draft Lottery Reforms, But Unintended Consequences Loom

The league's efforts to curb tanking could have the opposite effect, further entrenching the league's top teams.

Mar. 29, 2026 at 1:34pm

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A cubist, geometric painting depicting an abstract NBA draft lottery drawing, with sharp planes of bright blue, red, and yellow overlapping to create a fragmented, deconstructed visual representation of the lottery process.The NBA's proposed lottery reforms aim to discourage tanking, but could inadvertently concentrate talent among the league's elite teams.Boston Today

The NBA is considering three proposals to drastically overhaul the draft lottery system in an effort to curb tanking, but experts warn that each plan could have significant unintended consequences. The proposals include expanding the lottery to 18 or 22 teams, basing odds on multi-year records, and creating a two-tier lottery system. However, these changes could simply shift the incentives for losing rather than eliminating them, extend rebuilding timelines for struggling franchises, and further concentrate talent among the league's elite teams.

Why it matters

The draft lottery is a crucial mechanism for talent distribution and parity in the NBA, but the league's previous reforms have failed to curb the rise of tanking. These new proposals represent a more aggressive approach, but could wind up exacerbating the very problems they aim to solve by making it even harder for struggling teams to rebuild through the draft.

The details

The NBA's three proposals all aim to reduce the incentive for teams to intentionally lose games in order to improve their draft lottery odds. The first plan would expand the lottery to 18 teams, with the 10 non-playoff teams each getting an 8% chance at the top pick. The second would include the first-round playoff losers, basing odds on a two-year record. The third would have two separate lotteries - one for the top 5 picks and another for the remaining selections. However, experts warn these changes could simply shift the 'tank line' to different records, extend rebuilding timelines, and further concentrate talent among the league's elite teams that have already benefited from high draft picks.

  • The NBA first attempted to pass lottery reform after the 2013-14 season, when Sam Hinkie's 'Process' led the 76ers to intentionally tank.
  • The league successfully implemented changes to the lottery format in 2019, reducing the odds for the worst teams.
  • The latest proposals are now being considered by the NBA ahead of the 2026 draft.

The players

Sam Hinkie

The former general manager of the Philadelphia 76ers, who orchestrated an extensive multi-year tanking effort that led the league to pursue lottery reform.

Sam Presti

The general manager of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who reportedly worked behind the scenes to combat the NBA's initial lottery reform proposals in the 2010s.

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What they’re saying

“Tanking is a not a new phenomenon in the NBA. It's been happening in some fashion since the 1980s, but it was typically fairly well contained.”

— Sam Quinn, Author

“The NBA badly miscalculated on two fronts. The worst teams may have had less to gain by being awful... but they had more to lose by not being awful.”

— Sam Quinn, Author

What’s next

The NBA's Board of Governors will vote on whether to approve any of the proposed lottery reforms ahead of the 2026 draft.

The takeaway

The NBA's efforts to curb tanking through lottery reform are well-intentioned, but each of the current proposals carries significant risks of unintended consequences that could further entrench the league's elite teams and make it even harder for struggling franchises to rebuild through the draft.