Energy and natural resources leaders divided on transition investments and peak oil

Bain & Company's 2026 Energy & Natural Resources Survey finds regional differences in optimism for transition-oriented investments and peak oil expectations

Mar. 19, 2026 at 11:52am

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Bain & Company's annual survey of over 800 energy and natural resources executives globally found that while companies continue to focus on competitiveness, affordability, and investment returns, leaders are divided when it comes to optimism in transition-oriented investments and peak oil expectations. The report highlights four key trends: geopolitical swings are reshaping investments in real time, more restructuring is coming, AI experiments have proliferated but ROI is scarce, and AI's surging power demand is pushing utilities toward the most bankable bets.

Why it matters

The energy and natural resources sector is facing complex macroeconomic headwinds, with companies needing to balance priorities like competitiveness, affordability, and investment returns. The regional differences in outlook on transition-oriented investments and peak oil reflect the complexity of the energy transition and the role of policy support, which has not materialized as many had hoped.

The details

The survey found that economics will continue to drive where capital flows, with most executives anticipating global oil demand to keep rising for at least the next decade. However, the peak oil outlook varies by region, with half of European oil and gas executives thinking demand could peak before 2035, while 41% of North American executives don't see it happening until after 2050. Companies that were already investing significantly in transition-oriented businesses remain committed, while those that were allocating less are pulling back. Regional dynamics play a major role, with over half of companies in Europe allocating a significant amount to transition-related investments, compared to only a quarter of companies in North America and most other regions.

  • The survey was conducted in 2026.

The players

Bain & Company

A global consultancy that helps companies define the future.

Joe Scalise

The global head of Energy & Natural Resources at Bain & Company.

Grant Dougans

A partner and leader in Bain's Energy & Natural Resources practice.

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What they’re saying

“While executives are prioritizing securing competitive advantage and access to affordable, reliable clean energy as well as reducing carbon emissions, there's also a stronger consensus on global net-zero aspirations pushing out beyond 2070.”

— Joe Scalise, Global head of Energy & Natural Resources at Bain & Company

“Increasingly, geopolitics and policy environment are impacting how ENR leaders across the globe view transition-oriented investments differently. This reflects the complexity of the energy transition and the fact that the necessary policy support that many advocates hoped for hasn't come to fruition.”

— Joe Scalise, Global head of Energy & Natural Resources at Bain & Company

“As ENR executives translate today's industry signals into action, the mandate for tried and true business discipline is as clear as it has ever been: focus on investments grounded in the physics and economics, and bankable with clear line of sight to the explicit or implicit role of policy.”

— Grant Dougans, Partner and leader in Bain's Energy & Natural Resources practice

The takeaway

The energy and natural resources sector is facing a complex and uncertain future, with regional differences in outlook on key issues like transition-oriented investments and peak oil. Companies will need to carefully navigate this environment, focusing on investments that are grounded in economics and have clear policy support, while also remaining flexible enough to withstand volatility.