Strong El Niño Forecast to Suppress 2026 Hurricane Season

Weather expert Dr. Ryan Maue predicts a very active El Niño pattern will lead to below-average Atlantic hurricane activity this year.

Published on Mar. 6, 2026

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According to Dr. Ryan Maue's weather update, a strong El Niño is forecast to develop this summer, which historically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. The ECMWF seasonal forecast model shows a 20% decrease in Accumulated Cyclone Energy compared to the climate mean through the end of September 2026. However, the model also indicates some unusual patterns, with the Pacific near normal when it should be going "gangbusters" under El Niño conditions.

Why it matters

El Niño events have a significant impact on global weather patterns, often leading to a quieter Atlantic hurricane season due to increased wind shear and drier conditions. This forecast is important for coastal communities that have to prepare for potential storms each year. The unusual Pacific patterns noted by Dr. Maue also raise questions about how this El Niño event may differ from past occurrences.

The details

Dr. Maue's weather update includes detailed analysis of temperature, precipitation, and snowfall forecasts across the United States over the next 10-15 days. He notes a pattern of above-normal temperatures and increased precipitation, with the potential for severe weather in the central Plains. However, the Northeast is expected to remain cooler than average during this period. The update also highlights the potential for a shift in the polar vortex in the middle of March, which could bring a blast of Arctic air to the Lower 48 states.

  • The ECMWF seasonal forecast model shows a very strong El Niño event developing by September 2026.
  • The forecast is for 20% below the climate mean for Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Atlantic hurricane season through the end of September 2026.

The players

Dr. Ryan Maue

A weather expert and author of the Substack newsletter "Weather Trader", which provides in-depth analysis of weather patterns and forecasts.

ECMWF

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which produces one of the leading global weather prediction models.

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What they’re saying

“We'll watch the next couple months' (April / May) forecasts when they land, but history usually (almost always) means a tepid/quiet Atlantic hurricane season with strong El Niño.”

— Dr. Ryan Maue (Substack)

“However, it's a bit suspicious that the Pacific is near normal when it should be going gangbusters.”

— Dr. Ryan Maue (Substack)

What’s next

Dr. Maue will continue to monitor the development of the El Niño pattern and provide updates on how it may impact the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season in his upcoming weather forecasts.

The takeaway

This forecast highlights the significant influence that El Niño can have on global weather patterns, particularly in suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic. However, the unusual Pacific patterns noted by Dr. Maue suggest this El Niño event may have some unique characteristics that bear close watching in the months ahead.