Massachusetts Population Growth Slows as Immigration Declines

Expert cites drop in international immigration and fertility trends as factors behind the slowdown

Published on Feb. 16, 2026

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Massachusetts' population growth has slowed significantly, with federal estimates showing an increase of only 0.2% between July 2024 and July 2025. Experts attribute this to a drop in international immigration levels and long-term fertility trends, warning that the state's population could continue to decline without immigration.

Why it matters

Population growth is critical for Massachusetts, as immigrants have played a major role in boosting the state's economy across various sectors. The slowdown in growth could have significant implications for the state's workforce and economic competitiveness.

The details

According to data from the UMass Donahue Institute's Population Estimates Program, net international immigration to Massachusetts fell from 77,957 in July 2024 to 40,240 in July 2025. This decline is attributed to federal policy changes under the Trump administration that have made it more difficult for immigrants to enter and stay in the country. Additionally, the state's fertility rates are expected to decline as the large millennial population ages out of their peak childbearing years.

  • In July 2025, Massachusetts' population increased by only 0.2% compared to the previous year.
  • Between July 2023 and July 2024, Massachusetts saw its largest population increase in 60 years, at almost 1%, largely due to high immigration levels.
  • The Census Bureau estimates that net international migration to the U.S. declined by 0.5% year-over-year.

The players

Susan Strate

Senior program manager for the UMass Donahue Institute's Population Estimates Program.

Sen. Will Brownsberger

A Democratic state senator from Boston who chaired a Senate Committee on the Census hearing.

Aidan Enright

Economic Research Associate at the Boston-based Pioneer Institute, a think tank that has warned about outmigration from Massachusetts.

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What they’re saying

“Absent immigration, Massachusetts would already be losing population. Domestic out-migration rose again in 2025, and that's a clear signal that the state is becoming less competitive as a place to live, work, and do business.”

— Aidan Enright, Economic Research Associate, Pioneer Institute (newspub.live)

“We have sustained population growth entirely based on international migration. Over the past 12 months, international immigration has slowed to a trickle as a result of federal policy changes. That means that our projections of future population growth and future household formation need to be reviewed. All of our existing projections are based on immigration rates which are no longer to be expected.”

— Sen. Will Brownsberger, State Senator, Boston (newspub.live)

What’s next

The state legislature and policymakers will likely need to re-evaluate population growth projections and their implications for the state's economy and workforce in light of the declining immigration and fertility trends.

The takeaway

Massachusetts' reliance on international immigration to sustain its population growth has made the state vulnerable to federal policy changes that have significantly reduced immigration levels. Without a new wave of immigrants, the state's population could start to decline, posing challenges for its economy and workforce.