Massachusetts Sees Declining Population Growth as Immigration Slows

Experts warn of 'hollowing out' of state's workforce and economy due to outmigration and fertility declines

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

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Massachusetts is experiencing a slowdown in population growth, with federal estimates showing the state's population increased by only 0.2% between July 2024 and July 2025. Experts cite a historic decline in net international migration as the primary cause, as well as long-term fertility trends that are expected to further reduce the state's population in the coming decades.

Why it matters

Population growth is critical for Massachusetts, as immigrants have played a major role in boosting the state's economy across various sectors. The decline in immigration and outmigration of longtime residents could 'hollow out' the state's workforce and economy, according to experts.

The details

Immigration accounts for the biggest change in Massachusetts' population growth rate. Net international immigration to the state fell from 77,957 in July 2024 to 40,240 in July 2025, a historic decline. The Trump administration's immigration enforcement tactics are cited as a key factor behind the drop. Additionally, the state's fertility rates are expected to decline as the millennial generation, the largest population cohort, passes through its peak childbearing years.

  • In July 2025, Massachusetts' population increased by 0.2% compared to the previous year.
  • Between 2023 and 2024, Massachusetts saw its largest population increase in 60 years, almost 1%, largely fueled by high immigration levels.
  • The recent population estimates captured six months during the Biden administration and six months under the Trump administration.

The players

Susan Strate

Senior program manager for the UMass Donahue Institute's Population Estimates Program.

Sen. Will Brownsberger

A Boston Democrat who chaired a Senate Committee on the Census hearing.

Aidan Enright

Economic Research Associate at the Boston-based Pioneer Institute.

William F. Galvin

Massachusetts Secretary of State who recently cited concerns about 'efforts now underway to limit the process and procedures for the [census] count'.

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What they’re saying

“Absent immigration, Massachusetts would already be losing population. Domestic out-migration rose again in 2025, and that's a clear signal that the state is becoming less competitive as a place to live, work, and do business.”

— Aidan Enright, Economic Research Associate, Pioneer Institute (Pioneer Institute)

“We have sustained population growth entirely based on international migration. Over the past 12 months, international immigration has slowed to a trickle as a result of federal policy changes. That means that our projections of future population growth and future household formation need to be reviewed. All of our existing projections are based on immigration rates which are no longer to be expected.”

— Sen. Will Brownsberger, State Senator, Boston (State House News Service)

“The challenge in the 2030 census count is to include marginalized populations, especially immigrant populations. That's always a challenge, but the events of the last 12 months have enormously reduced trust in immigrant communities and they're less likely to stand up to be counted in the 2030 Census.”

— Sen. Will Brownsberger, State Senator, Boston (State House News Service)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This report highlights the significant impact that declining immigration and fertility rates could have on Massachusetts' population and economy in the coming years. Policymakers will need to closely monitor these trends and consider strategies to attract and retain residents, especially immigrants, in order to maintain the state's economic competitiveness.