Fed's Miran Says Dollar Needs 'Really Big Move' to Affect Inflation

Central bank independence is important but not an end in itself, Miran says

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said the dollar would need to register a steeper fall than it already has for it to become a first-order issue that would affect consumer inflation in the United States. Miran also discussed the importance of central bank independence, stating that it is a means to an end of having monetary policy attuned to the business cycle, not the political calendar.

Why it matters

Miran's comments provide insight into the Fed's views on the relationship between the dollar and inflation, as well as the central bank's independence and its role in setting monetary policy. This is particularly relevant as the Fed navigates a challenging economic environment with high inflation and a potential recession on the horizon.

The details

Miran said "You need a really big move for it to sort of really be a first order issue that would really affect consumer inflation in the United States." He added that dollar weakness does not have material consequences on monetary policy so far. Miran also discussed the importance of central bank independence, stating that it is a means to an end of having monetary policy attuned to the business cycle, not the political calendar. Miran has advocated for deeper interest rate cuts and has dissented at meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee.

  • Miran resigned from his role as a top White House economic adviser last week.
  • President Trump is expected to use the vacancy of Miran's open Fed seat to fill the spot with his new choice for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.

The players

Stephen Miran

A Federal Reserve governor who has advocated for deeper interest rate cuts and has dissented at meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Adriana Kugler

A former Federal Reserve governor who stepped down, leading to Miran's appointment to finish out her term.

Kevin Warsh

President Trump's expected new choice for Fed Chair, who would fill the vacancy of Miran's open Fed seat.

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What they’re saying

“You need a really big move for it to sort of really be a first order issue that would really affect consumer inflation in the United States.”

— Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve governor (marketscreener.com)

“What you want is to have monetary policy that's attuned to the business cycle, not to have monetary policy that's attuned to a different calendar, say political calendar.”

— Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve governor (marketscreener.com)

“There's no such thing as absolute, 100% pure independence. Nevertheless, it is really important that we make decisions that we make for the economic cycle to be tight when the economy calls for tight and to be loose when the economy calls for loose and for no other reason.”

— Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve governor (marketscreener.com)

What’s next

President Trump is expected to use the vacancy of Miran's open Fed seat to fill the spot with his new choice for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.

The takeaway

Miran's comments highlight the Fed's view that the dollar would need to see a significant decline to materially impact consumer inflation, and the importance the central bank places on maintaining independence from political influence in setting monetary policy to support the economic cycle.