BC Scientists Uncover Methane Surge in Early 2020s

Weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land drove unprecedented methane rise.

Published on Feb. 6, 2026

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An international team of researchers, including a Boston College professor, report that a combination of weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land increased atmospheric methane at an unprecedented rate in the early 2020s. The sharp decline in hydroxyl radicals, the primary "cleaning agent" that breaks down methane in the atmosphere, during 2020-2021 explains roughly 80% of the year-to-year variation in methane accumulation. At the same time, an extended La Niña period from 2020 to 2023 brought wetter-than-average conditions across much of the tropics, expanding flooded areas and stimulating the production of methane.

Why it matters

As the planet becomes warmer and wetter, methane emissions from wetlands, inland waters, and paddy rice systems will increasingly shape near-term climate change. The findings highlight that the Global Methane Pledge must account for climate-driven methane sources alongside anthropogenic controls if its mitigation targets are to be achieved.

The details

Atmospheric methane levels rose by 55 parts per billion between 2019 and 2023, reaching a record 1921 ppb in 2023. The rate of increase peaked in 2021 at nearly 18 ppb, an 84% jump compared with 2019. The largest emission increases occurred in tropical Africa and Southeast Asia, while Arctic wetlands and lakes also showed significant growth as warming enhanced microbial activity. In contrast, methane emissions from South American wetlands declined in 2023 during an extreme El Niño–related drought. Fossil fuel and wildfire emissions played only a minor role in the recent methane surge, with isotopic evidence confirming that microbial sources – wetlands, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and agriculture – dominated the observed changes.

  • Atmospheric methane levels rose by 55 parts per billion between 2019 and 2023.
  • The rate of increase peaked in 2021 at nearly 18 ppb, an 84% jump compared with 2019.
  • An extended La Niña period occurred from 2020 to 2023.
  • Methane emissions from South American wetlands declined in 2023 during an extreme El Niño–related drought.

The players

Hanqin Tian

Professor of Earth and Environmental Science at Boston College and Director of Center for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability in Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society.

Philippe Ciais

Study lead author, from the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines.

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What they’re saying

“As the planet becomes warmer and wetter, methane emissions from wetlands, inland waters, and paddy rice systems will increasingly shape near-term climate change. Our findings highlight that the Global Methane Pledge must account for climate-driven methane sources alongside anthropogenic controls if its mitigation targets are to be achieved.”

— Hanqin Tian, Professor of Earth and Environmental Science (Mirage News)

“By providing the most up-to-date global methane budget through 2023, this research clarifies why atmospheric methane rose so rapidly. It also shows that future methane trends will depend not only on emission controls, but on climate-driven changes in natural and managed methane sources.”

— Philippe Ciais, Study lead author (Mirage News)

The takeaway

This early-2020s methane surge highlights the critical role that climate-driven changes in natural and managed methane sources, such as wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agriculture, will play in shaping future methane trends alongside efforts to control anthropogenic emissions. Accurately monitoring and modeling these dynamic natural systems is crucial for developing effective methane mitigation strategies.