Research Probes Surgical Risk in Adults With Heart Defects

Study Examines Prediction of Surgical Risk in Growing Population of Adults with Congenital Heart Disease

Jan. 31, 2026 at 6:31pm

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A new study presented at the 2026 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Annual Meeting found that 16.7% of adults nationwide with congenital heart disease (CHD) were considered high-risk for operative mortality and serious postoperative complications after redo cardiac surgery. Researchers used machine-learning analysis and logistic regression to help determine surgical risk on a national level, identifying 15 key factors that influence postoperative risk.

Why it matters

Adults with CHD represent a growing and medically complex population, despite surgical advances. Most were born with structural heart defects and underwent surgery early in life; many now require additional procedures as adults. Their prior operations, changing physiology, and long-term health challenges make it difficult for surgeons and patients to estimate operative risk using current tools designed for the broader adult cardiac population.

The details

The study, led by Elaine Griffeth, MD, a resident in the combined general and thoracic surgery program at Mayo Clinic, analyzes cases in the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) covering July 2017 through December 2023. Researchers used their previous work on clinical data from Mayo Clinic with machine-learning analysis and logistic regression to help determine surgical risk on a national level. Patients with isolated bicuspid aortic valve diagnoses, undergoing their first cardiac operation, or undergoing heart transplantation or isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) were excluded from the study to focus the analysis on conditions more typical of adult CHD surgical care.

  • The study analyzed cases in the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database from July 2017 through December 2023.
  • The research was presented at the 2026 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Annual Meeting.

The players

Elaine Griffeth, MD

A resident in the combined general and thoracic surgery program at Mayo Clinic who led the study.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

A not-for-profit organization representing more than 8,000 surgeons, researchers, and allied healthcare professionals worldwide who are committed to improving outcomes for patients undergoing cardiothoracic surgery.

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What they’re saying

“Many patients with congenital heart disease will need surgery as adults. Our work shows that the overall risk of post-surgical complications is prevalent, but patients need to know their individual risk based on their individual medical circumstances. We are setting the stage to create a reliable resource for this emerging patient population.”

— Elaine Griffeth, MD, Resident in the combined general and thoracic surgery program at Mayo Clinic (Mirage News)

“This is a work in progress. We want to have high reliability in the surgeries we are offering, and we are trying to tailor this model with data from past patients. The more informed patients are about their risks for surgery, the better.”

— Elaine Griffeth, MD, Resident in the combined general and thoracic surgery program at Mayo Clinic (Mirage News)

What’s next

The researchers are working to create a reliable surgical risk calculator for adults with congenital heart disease, integrating machine-learning with traditional statistical methods to offer a practical path forward.

The takeaway

This research highlights the growing need for specialized risk assessment tools for the increasing population of adults living with congenital heart defects, as their prior surgeries, changing physiology, and long-term health challenges make it difficult to estimate operative risk using current tools designed for the broader adult cardiac population.