Three Horses Join Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby Contenders List

Emerging Market, Fulleffort, and Pavlovian earn spots after 100-point prep races

Mar. 28, 2026 at 8:50pm

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A cubist-style painting depicting a Kentucky Derby race broken down into sharp, overlapping geometric planes, with no recognizable faces or logos, only the raw energy and movement of the horses and jockeys.A cubist interpretation of the emerging Kentucky Derby contenders, their paths to Churchill Downs depicted in a fractured, geometric style.Louisville Today

Three horses - Emerging Market, Fulleffort, and Pavlovian - have earned their way onto the Daily Racing Form's Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders list this week after strong performances in 100-point prep races. Paladin remains the 6-1 favorite, with Chief Wallabee and Commandment co-second choices at 8-1.

Why it matters

The Kentucky Derby field is starting to take shape, with the next 10 days expected to be crucial in determining the top contenders. The addition of these three horses to the list highlights the competitive nature of this year's race and the potential for some new faces to emerge as serious Derby threats.

The details

Fulleffort, who has never run on dirt, won the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, earning a 94 Beyer and now pointing to the Kentucky Derby. Emerging Market won at Fair Grounds by a head over Pavlovian in just his second career start, going 1 3/16 miles for the first time. Pavlovian, who set a 'pretty legitimate pace' and held on for second, now holds the points to run in the Derby.

  • Fulleffort won the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on March 21.
  • Emerging Market won at Fair Grounds on March 21.
  • The Florida Derby will be run on March 28, featuring a showdown between Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Nearly, and The Puma.
  • The Arkansas Derby on March 28 will feature Renegade and Silent Tactic.

The players

Paladin

The 6-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby, trained by Chad Brown.

Chief Wallabee

An 8-1 co-second choice in the Kentucky Derby, trained by Bill Mott.

Commandment

An 8-1 co-second choice in the Kentucky Derby, trained by Brad Cox.

Fulleffort

A 25-1 Kentucky Derby contender who won the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, trained by Brad Cox.

Emerging Market

A 15-1 Kentucky Derby contender who won at Fair Grounds in just his second career start, trained by Chad Brown.

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What they’re saying

“Fulleffort has never run on dirt. That is the central fact surrounding his 2 1/2-length victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, where he earned a 94 Beyer on the synthetic surface and is now pointed to the Kentucky Derby.”

— David Grening, Daily Racing Form Analyst

“Emerging Market won at Fair Grounds by a head over Pavlovian in just his second career start, going 1 3/16 miles for the first time and facing winners for the first time. Aragona said the colt 'has yet to hit the ceiling of what he could do' – but added that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby off just two prior starts since 1883.”

— David Aragona, Daily Racing Form Analyst

“Pavlovian, who set what Grening called 'a pretty legitimate pace' and still held on for second, now holds the points to run in the Derby. Grening said the runner-up 'is emerging as a Derby horse. He's got the points now to get in, and they are headed that direction.'”

— David Grening, Daily Racing Form Analyst

What’s next

The Florida Derby on March 28 will be a key race in determining the top Kentucky Derby contenders, with Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Nearly, and The Puma all set to compete. The Arkansas Derby on the same day will also feature Renegade and Silent Tactic.

The takeaway

The addition of Emerging Market, Fulleffort, and Pavlovian to the Kentucky Derby contenders list highlights the depth and competitiveness of this year's field. With several key prep races coming up, the next 10 days will be crucial in shaping the top of the Derby board and determining which new faces emerge as serious threats to the early favorites.