Math Professor Predicts March Madness Winners After Running 5,000 Simulations

Davidson College professor Tim Chartier shares his Final Four and championship picks for the 2026 NCAA men's and women's basketball tournaments.

Mar. 16, 2026 at 10:59pm

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With the 2026 NCAA Division I basketball tournaments set to begin, Davidson College math professor Tim Chartier and his students analyzed the performance of 350 teams across 5,000 games to predict the winners. Chartier forecasts that the No. 1 seeds will reach the Final Four in both the men's and women's tournaments, and he believes Duke and UConn will win the respective championships.

Why it matters

Predicting the outcomes of the unpredictable NCAA tournaments is an annual rite of spring, with millions of fans filling out brackets in hopes of a perfect prediction. Chartier's data-driven approach provides a unique perspective on how the tournaments might unfold, offering insights that could help inform fans' picks.

The details

Chartier and his students used various mathematical models and ranking systems to simulate the tournaments 5,000 times. For the men's tournament, their models show the No. 1 seeds - Duke, Florida, Michigan and Arizona - reaching the Final Four, though they note Illinois could also make a run. On the women's side, Chartier predicts all the No. 1 seeds will make the Final Four as well. The models also flagged a couple potential first-round upsets, with South Florida over Louisville and VCU over North Carolina on the men's side.

  • The 2026 NCAA men's Division I basketball tournament begins on March 19.
  • The 2026 NCAA women's Division I basketball tournament tips off on March 20.

The players

Tim Chartier

A professor of mathematics and computer science at Davidson College who specializes in data and sports analytics, particularly ranking systems.

Duke

A No. 1 seed predicted to reach the men's Final Four and potentially win the national championship.

UConn

A No. 1 seed predicted to win the women's national championship.

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What they’re saying

“It's March Madness, and you never know when skill will be overtaken by psychology because there's a lot of pressure.”

— Tim Chartier, Professor of mathematics and computer science (wbal.com)

What’s next

The first round of the 2026 NCAA men's and women's Division I basketball tournaments will take place in the coming weeks, providing the opportunity to see if Chartier's predictions hold true.

The takeaway

Chartier's data-driven approach to forecasting the NCAA tournament outcomes demonstrates the power of analytics in sports, offering a unique perspective that could help inform fans' bracket picks and provide insights into the unpredictable nature of March Madness.