Louisville Faces Upset Alert Against South Florida in NCAA Tournament

11th-seeded USF Bulls are a trendy pick to knock off No. 6 Louisville Cardinals in March Madness opener

Mar. 16, 2026 at 8:24pm

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Louisville basketball opens the NCAA Tournament as a No. 6 seed facing off against No. 11 South Florida. The Bulls are a popular upset pick, with experts like ESPN's Jay Bilas and NBC Sports' John Fanta predicting they can take down the Cardinals. South Florida has been on a hot streak, winning 11 straight games, and boasts a high-powered offense and the AAC Player of the Year in Izaiyah Nelson. However, Louisville has played a much tougher schedule and could get a boost if star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. is able to return from injury.

Why it matters

This first-round matchup between Louisville and South Florida has emerged as one of the most intriguing potential upsets of the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. A South Florida win would shake up the South region bracket and potentially set up an even bigger Cinderella story in the later rounds.

The details

South Florida enters the tournament as the AAC regular season and tournament champions, riding an 11-game winning streak. They boast the 8th-best offense in Division I, averaging 87.7 points per game, and the 15th-fastest tempo. The Bulls are led by AAC Player, Defensive Player, and Newcomer of the Year Izaiyah Nelson, who averages a double-double. Louisville, meanwhile, has struggled defensively against top competition, ranking 81st in adjusted defensive efficiency against Quad 1 opponents. The Cardinals' status is also uncertain with star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. dealing with a back injury.

  • The Louisville vs. South Florida NCAA Tournament game will tip off at 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 20, 2026 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.

The players

Izaiyah Nelson

The AAC's Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Newcomer of the Year, Nelson is South Florida's leading scorer (15.7 ppg) and rebounder (9.6 rpg).

Mikel Brown Jr.

Louisville's star freshman guard, who averages 18.2 points, 4.7 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game, is dealing with a back injury and his status for the tournament opener is uncertain.

Bryan Hodgson

In his third year as South Florida's head coach, Hodgson has led the Bulls to the AAC regular season and tournament titles and an 11-game winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Pat Kelsey

The head coach of Louisville, Kelsey will look to guide his Cardinals squad past the upset-minded South Florida Bulls in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

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What they’re saying

“I really like this USF team to knock off Louisville.”

— John Fanta, NBC Sports Analyst (Wake Up Barstool)

“This is a great upset pick. Mikel Brown Jr. has been out because of a sore back, and South Florida is tough. It's worth rolling the dice on this one, because Michigan State will likely beat either team.”

— Jay Bilas, ESPN Analyst (Jay Bilas' March Madness Predictions)

“They've got some dudes who can play. I like South Florida here - big time.”

— Rico Bosco, Analyst (Mostly Hoops With Mark Titus & Co.)

What’s next

The winner of the Louisville-South Florida matchup will advance to face the winner of the Michigan State-Colgate game in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

The takeaway

This first-round clash between Louisville and South Florida has all the makings of a potential March Madness upset. The hot-shooting, high-powered Bulls present a real challenge for the Cardinals, who have struggled defensively against top competition. If Mikel Brown Jr. is unable to play, Louisville could be in trouble against an inspired South Florida squad looking to pull off a Cinderella run in the Big Dance.