ESPN Predicts Kentucky's Early NCAA Tournament Exit

Wildcats face tough path to Sweet 16 according to tournament projections

Mar. 16, 2026 at 2:48am

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According to ESPN's tournament predictions, the Kentucky Wildcats are not expected to make a deep run in this year's NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are projected to defeat Santa Clara in the first round, but then fall to Iowa State in the second round, with ESPN's analyst not even mentioning Kentucky in his regional analysis.

Why it matters

Kentucky is one of college basketball's most storied programs, so their early tournament exit would be a surprise to many fans. The Wildcats have a history of making deep tournament runs, including winning the national championship in 2014 as an 8-seed, so this year's projected early exit would mark a significant shift in expectations.

The details

ESPN's Jeff Borzello predicted Kentucky will defeat Santa Clara 79-75 in the first round, but then lose to Iowa State 79-69 in the second round. Borzello's analysis of the Midwest region does not even mention the Wildcats, indicating they are not expected to advance past the second round.

  • The 2026 NCAA Tournament is scheduled to take place in March 2026.

The players

Kentucky Wildcats

One of the most successful college basketball programs in the country, with 8 national championships and 17 Final Four appearances.

Santa Clara Broncos

A mid-major program making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996.

Iowa State Cyclones

An elite team with one of the best 3-point shooters in the country in Milan Momcilovic.

Jeff Borzello

An ESPN college basketball analyst who predicted the outcomes of every NCAA Tournament game.

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What’s next

The 2026 NCAA Tournament will take place in March 2026, with the first round games scheduled for March 19-20.

The takeaway

Kentucky's early projected exit from the NCAA Tournament would be a significant surprise, given the program's storied history of tournament success. However, the Wildcats will need to overcome a tough draw and prove the predictions wrong if they hope to make a deep run this year.