The war on Iran could remake the world

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The United States and Israel have launched a military campaign against Iran, claiming it was necessary to protect themselves and the world from a nuclear threat. However, the consequences of this war will extend far beyond the Middle East, as it marks the latest stage in a long process of upheaval that has been reshaping the region since the end of the Cold War.

Why it matters

The war against Iran is not merely another Middle Eastern conflict, but a culmination of a transformation that began more than three decades ago. The consequences of this war will have profound implications for the global order, as it erodes international legal norms and pushes countries to focus on strengthening their own military capabilities, potentially leading to more instability and the breakdown of international cooperation.

The details

The US and Israel justified the military campaign by claiming Iran was secretly accumulating enough weapons-grade uranium to build up to 11 atomic bombs. However, it became clear that nuclear fears were only part of the story. The war against Iran is the latest stage in a long process of upheaval that has been reshaping the Middle East since the end of the Cold War, including the Gulf War, the global War on Terror, the Arab Spring, and the civil war in Syria. Each crisis has pulled more actors into the vortex, and control over events has slipped away from those who had initiated them. The US sought to reduce its direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts while simultaneously maintaining its influence, but these goals proved increasingly difficult to reconcile.

• In 2001, the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington triggered the global War on Terror, leading to military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• In 2011, the Arab Spring destabilized regimes across the region, followed by intervention in Libya and the prolonged civil war in Syria.
• Late in 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former US President Donald Trump agreed to launch a decisive campaign against Iran.

What’s next

The broader implications of this war extend far beyond the Middle East, as the erosion of international legal norms has reached a new stage. The use of force in international politics is increasingly justified not through international law, but through the logic of necessity and strength. This trend may push countries to focus on strengthening their own military capabilities, potentially leading to more instability and the breakdown of international cooperation.