Handful of States and Districts Could Decide Control of Congress

Narrow margins and low voter turnout mean a small number of voters could determine the balance of power in Washington.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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With just a handful of competitive Senate and House races, control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections could come down to a small number of voters in a few key states and districts. Republicans and Democrats are gearing up for a costly and intense campaign season, even though the majority in both chambers may be decided by narrow margins in a small number of toss-up races.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 2026 midterms will have major implications, potentially determining the fate of President Trump's agenda, judicial nominations, and even whether he faces impeachment proceedings. However, the hyper-partisan nature of modern politics has turned off many voters, making turnout a critical factor.

The details

According to analysis from The Cook Political Report, there are just 4 Senate races and 18 House districts out of hundreds nationwide where each party has an even chance of winning. The rest are considered safe for one party or the other. Combined with historically low midterm turnout, this means a relatively small number of voters in a handful of key areas could decide control of Congress.

  • The first primary elections are scheduled for March 3, 2026 and will continue through September, with 16 taking place in June alone.
  • The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November.

The players

Donald Trump

The current President, who has warned that if Republicans lose the House, he'll face impeachment proceedings for the third time.

Mike Johnson

The Republican Speaker of the House, who is confident GOP candidates will win enough races to maintain control.

John Thune

The Republican Senate Majority Leader, who is also confident Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

Hakeem Jeffries

The House Minority Leader, who is confident Democrats will regain power in the House.

Chuck Schumer

The Senate Minority Leader, who is also confident Democrats will retake control of the Senate.

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What they’re saying

“Whether it's a Republican or a Democrat, whoever wins the presidency, the other party wins the midterm. And it doesn't make sense because … we've had the most successful first year of any president in history.”

— Donald Trump

“I think they're going to give it to the grown-ups. I think the Republicans will be able to continue and grow our majority to keep governing.”

— Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the House

“Every two years we have to go back to the people to make an argument, to persuade them to renew our two-year employment contract. That's just a way of life.”

— Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Leader

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.