Key Nuclear Treaty Ending, Blow to Russia's 'Superpower' Status

Expiration of New START treaty raises concerns about unconstrained nuclear expansion and global security.

Published on Feb. 4, 2026

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The expiration of the New START treaty, a key nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, marks the end of an era in which the two countries maintained a rough nuclear parity. With the treaty lapsing, Russia faces the prospect of the U.S. expanding its nuclear arsenal without constraints, further diminishing Moscow's status as a global superpower.

Why it matters

The demise of the New START treaty underscores Russia's declining influence on the international stage since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The treaty's expiration threatens to unleash a new era of nuclear uncertainty and an unchecked nuclear buildup, with significant implications for global security.

The details

The New START treaty, signed in 2010, limited both the U.S. and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed long-range nuclear warheads. However, the Trump administration has shown little urgency in renewing the deal, with the president suggesting a 'better' agreement may eventually be reached. This contrasts with the Kremlin's anxiety over the treaty's expiration, which Russian officials warn could speed up the 'Doomsday Clock' and lead to a catastrophic nuclear scenario.

  • The New START treaty expires on Thursday, February 5, 2026.
  • The treaty was originally signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

The players

Ronald Reagan

Former U.S. President who once referred to the Soviet Union as an 'evil empire'.

Barack Obama

Former U.S. President who signed the New START treaty with Russia in 2010.

Dmitry Medvedev

Former Russian President who signed the New START treaty with the U.S. in 2010, and is now an outspoken security official warning about the treaty's expiration.

Donald Trump

Current U.S. President who has shown little urgency in renewing the New START treaty, suggesting a 'better' deal may eventually be reached.

Dmitry Peskov

Kremlin spokesman who has expressed concerns about the U.S. and Russia being left without a fundamental document to limit and control their nuclear arsenals.

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What they’re saying

“If it expires, it expires.”

— Donald Trump (CNN)

“I don't want to say that this immediately means a catastrophe and a nuclear war will begin, but it should still alarm everyone.”

— Dmitry Medvedev, Security Official (CNN)

“For the first time, the United States and Russia, the two countries that possess the world's largest nuclear arsenals, will be left without a fundamental document that would limit and establish controls over these arsenals. We believe this is very bad for global and strategic security.”

— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Spokesman (CNN)

What’s next

The U.S. and Russia have until Thursday, February 5, 2026, to reach an agreement to extend or replace the New START treaty before it expires.

The takeaway

The expiration of the New START treaty marks the end of an era of nuclear arms control between the U.S. and Russia, and could lead to a new era of unconstrained nuclear expansion, further diminishing Russia's status as a global superpower and raising concerns about the future of global security.