K-State Study Finds Strong Consumer Demand Driving Beef Prices Despite Tighter Cattle Supplies

Research shows consumer preferences have become a powerful driver of market outcomes in the U.S. beef supply chain.

Jan. 29, 2026 at 2:15pm

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According to a study by Kansas State University agricultural economists, consumer demand for beef, not just shrinking cattle numbers, is playing a central role in shaping prices and profitability across the U.S. beef supply chain. The researchers analyzed retail-level beef data and found that despite a major contraction in the cattle industry since 2019, total retail beef availability has held steady due to innovations in genetics, feeding methods, and technology that have allowed feedlots to produce larger carcasses with more high-quality beef. As a result, beef prices have continued to rise even as supply has increased, indicating strong underlying consumer demand.

Why it matters

This research highlights the importance of consumer preferences in driving the beef market, even during periods of tight cattle supplies. It suggests that factors beyond just supply, such as innovation and consumer demand, are playing a key role in shaping the industry's trajectory and profitability.

The details

The study, co-authored by Kansas State University agricultural economists Brian Coffey and Glynn Tonsor, found that since 2019, the U.S. beef cow herd has been in a rapid liquidation phase due to drought, market conditions, and other pressures. By 2023, the industry was still firmly in a liquidation phase, with fewer cows and animals available for feeding. However, the total amount of beef available to consumers held steady due to innovations that allowed feedlots to produce larger carcasses with more high-quality beef, as well as imports of lean trim to maintain ground beef supplies.

  • The current trajectory began in 2019, when the U.S. beef cow herd reached its most recent peak.
  • By 2023, the industry was still firmly in a liquidation phase, with fewer cows and animals available for feeding.
  • Between 2023 and 2024, the researchers saw a price increase for beef, even though total retail beef availability was actually higher in 2024 than in 2023.

The players

Brian Coffey

A co-author of the recent paper examining the U.S. retail beef market and an agricultural economist at Kansas State University.

Glynn Tonsor

A co-author of the recent paper examining the U.S. retail beef market and an agricultural economist at Kansas State University.

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What they’re saying

“A microeconomic assessment is really about using economic theory and models to help explain what we're seeing in the real world. We make simplifying assumptions and apply economic frameworks to real data so we can isolate what's driving changes in prices and quantities.”

— Brian Coffey, Co-author of the study and agricultural economist at Kansas State University

“As an industry, we really stepped up. We had fewer animals, but we were able to offset that with heavier weights and imports.”

— Brian Coffey, Co-author of the study and agricultural economist at Kansas State University

“Demand really matters. What consumers think about beef feeds all the way back up the supply chain and determines profitability. Strong consumer demand right now is providing price support beyond what supply factors alone would explain.”

— Brian Coffey, Co-author of the study and agricultural economist at Kansas State University

What’s next

The researchers expect 2025 data to show a modest decline in retail beef supply, likely a few percent, as production efficiencies can no longer fully offset declining cattle numbers. Prices are again expected to rise.

The takeaway

This study highlights the importance of consumer demand in driving the beef market, even during periods of tight cattle supplies. It suggests that factors beyond just supply, such as innovation and consumer preferences, are playing a key role in shaping the industry's trajectory and profitability.