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Lawrence Today
By the People, for the People
ESPN Forecasts Tight Kansas vs Iowa State Basketball Matchup
Computer model gives Cyclones slight edge over Jayhawks in key Big 12 clash
Published on Feb. 13, 2026
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ESPN's computer model projects a close matchup between No. 9 Kansas and No. 5 Iowa State this weekend, with the Cyclones having a 73.2% chance of victory compared to the Jayhawks' 26.8%. While Iowa State opened as 5.5-point favorites, the model views them as overwhelming favorites despite Kansas' recent hot streak and victory over No. 1 Arizona.
Why it matters
This Big 12 clash between two top-10 teams is a crucial conference game that could have major implications for the league standings and NCAA Tournament seeding. Kansas is looking to complete a rare season sweep over a deep-rooted rival, while Iowa State is aiming to bounce back from a recent loss to TCU.
The details
Kansas has won eight straight games since losing to Iowa State on January 13th, while the Cyclones have gone 5-3 over their last eight contests after starting the season 16-0. The Jayhawks are expected to get star freshman Darryn Peterson back for this matchup, which could give them a significant boost against the Cyclones' stifling defense.
- The teams first met on January 13th, with Iowa State defeating Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.
- This rematch is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at Hilton Coliseum.
The players
Joshua Jefferson
A forward for the Iowa State Cyclones.
Tre White
A guard for the Kansas Jayhawks.
Melvin Council Jr.
A guard for the Kansas Jayhawks.
Darryn Peterson
A star freshman guard for the Kansas Jayhawks who is expected to return for this matchup.
Blake Buchanan
A forward for the Iowa State Cyclones.
What’s next
The winner of this matchup will take a big step towards securing a top seed in the Big 12 tournament and potentially a high NCAA Tournament seed.
The takeaway
This game features two of the top teams in the Big 12 and could come down to the wire, despite ESPN's computer model giving Iowa State the edge. Kansas' recent hot streak and the potential return of Darryn Peterson make them a dangerous opponent, and this clash between conference rivals should be an exciting one.
