New Tornado Warning System Boosts Lead Times

Researchers at the University of Kansas show Warn-on-Forecast System can provide up to an hour of advance notice before tornado formation.

Jan. 27, 2026 at 9:47pm

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Researchers at the University of Kansas have found that the National Severe Storms Laboratory's Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) has the potential to help weather forecasters issue tornado warnings to the public and emergency managers well before a tornado actually forms. The current lead time on tornado warnings is about 15 minutes, but WoFS could push that up to an hour in some cases by analyzing environmental factors and storm characteristics to predict tornado formation.

Why it matters

Increasing tornado warning lead times from 15 minutes to up to an hour could save many lives and prevent significant property damage across Tornado Alley and other tornado-prone regions. The additional time would allow emergency managers to better prepare and coordinate response efforts, while giving the public more opportunity to seek shelter.

The details

The WoFS system synthesizes real-time observational data and runs high-resolution simulations to gauge uncertainties and produce guidance for tornado and severe weather threats before they form. Researchers analyzed 41 supercell storms and found that the size and extent of pockets of environmental factors like storm-relative helicity, low cloud bases, wind shear, and rotation near the storm's inflow region were better indicators of tornado potential than just looking at maximum values of those factors. These are the signals that WoFS can detect up to an hour in advance to issue earlier tornado warnings.

  • The current lead time on tornado warnings is about 15 minutes.
  • The WoFS system can potentially push lead times up to an hour before a tornado actually forms.

The players

University of Kansas

A public research university located in Lawrence, Kansas that conducted the research on the Warn-on-Forecast System.

National Severe Storms Laboratory

A research laboratory that developed the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) to improve tornado warning lead times.

David Rahn

A professor of geography & atmospheric studies at the University of Kansas and co-author of the research study.

Jerod Kaufman

A University of Kansas graduate student who was the lead author of the research study and now works for the National Weather Service.

National Weather Service

The primary end user of the WoFS system, which will make the technology available to the public as well.

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What they’re saying

“Right now, when we do any kind of warnings or forecasts of tornadoes and severe weather, we use a warn-on-detection paradigm. If we see rotation in real time on radar, or if a storm spotter reports that a tornado is happening, that is when warnings are issued.”

— David Rahn, Professor of Geography & Atmospheric Studies, University of Kansas

“The goal is to increase lead times well beyond the typical 15 minutes. In some cases, this system can push lead times up to an hour before the event actually occurs.”

— David Rahn, Professor of Geography & Atmospheric Studies, University of Kansas

“One major benefit of longer lead times is informing emergency managers at the county level. With more time, they can position resources, coordinate hospitals and prepare search-and-rescue operations. The mission of the National Weather Service is to protect lives and property. An hour of lead time versus 15 minutes is extremely useful for everybody.”

— David Rahn, Professor of Geography & Atmospheric Studies, University of Kansas

What’s next

As the WoFS system continues to undergo evaluation in live-forecasting scenarios, the hope is it will eventually be implemented by the National Weather Service to save lives and property across tornado-prone regions.

The takeaway

This new Warn-on-Forecast System represents a major advancement in tornado early warning capabilities, with the potential to dramatically increase lead times and give emergency responders and the public much more time to prepare for and respond to dangerous tornado threats.