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Mackey Today
By the People, for the People
Indiana Basketball Bubble Watch: NCAA Tournament Odds and Path to the Dance
Hoosiers need to make a statement in the Big Ten Tournament to solidify their March Madness bid
Published on Feb. 27, 2026
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The 2025-2026 college basketball season has been a rollercoaster for Indiana, which began the year ranked but now finds its NCAA Tournament hopes hanging by a thread. Following a disappointing loss to Northwestern, the Hoosiers sit at 17-11 with three games remaining in the regular season. Indiana needs to win at least two more games, potentially including a statement victory over Michigan State or Ohio State, to be considered by the selection committee.
Why it matters
Indiana effectively fired head coach Mike Woodson after consecutive 19-win seasons that resulted in missing the NCAA Tournament, and the Hoosiers are currently on track for a regression in Darian DeVries' first season at the helm. This case highlights the pressure on DeVries to get Indiana back to the Big Dance and the challenges the program faces in returning to national prominence.
The details
Indiana is just 2-10 against Quad 1 opponents this season, and many of those losses have been competitive. The Hoosiers' poor record and inconsistency have left their March Madness odds entirely up in the air, with oddsmakers and analytics projecting them as either a slight favorite or underdog to make the 68-team bracket. Indiana needs to make a statement in the Big Ten Tournament to solidify its NCAA Tournament case, as only two teams earned at-large bids with fewer than 20 wins in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
- Indiana lost to Northwestern on February 26, 2026 to fall to 17-11 on the season.
- Indiana has three regular season games remaining, including matchups against No. 13 Michigan State, Minnesota, and Ohio State.
- The Big Ten Tournament will take place in March 2026, providing Indiana a final opportunity to earn an NCAA Tournament bid.
The players
Darian DeVries
The head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers in his first season, tasked with getting the program back to the NCAA Tournament after consecutive 19-win seasons under the previous coach.
Mike Woodson
The former head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers, who was effectively fired after the team missed the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons.
Tom Izzo
The head coach of the Michigan State Spartans, who defeated Indiana 81-60 earlier this season and has the Spartans riding high heading into their rematch in Bloomington.
What’s next
Indiana's matchup against No. 13 Michigan State on March 2nd will be a crucial game in determining their NCAA Tournament fate. A win over the Spartans would be a significant boost to their resume.
The takeaway
Indiana's struggles this season highlight the challenges of rebuilding a once-proud basketball program. The Hoosiers need to make a statement in the Big Ten Tournament to prove they belong in the NCAA Tournament and take the first step towards returning to national prominence.
