Indiana's Dramatic North-South Freeze Gap Revealed

From a 97% freeze chance in South Bend to just 30% in Louisville, the odds of another spring freeze vary widely across the state.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 9:50am

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A sweeping, atmospheric landscape painting in muted tones of gray, white, and blue, depicting a vast, frozen field under a dramatic, cloudy sky. The scene conveys the overwhelming scale and power of the natural world, with the frozen ground and distant horizon dwarfing any small structures or objects.As the spring planting season approaches, Indiana's dramatic north-south divide in freeze risk underscores the need for hyperlocal weather data to guide crop protection strategies.Indianapolis Today

A new analysis of 30 years of weather data from the National Weather Service shows a stark divide in the odds of experiencing another spring freeze across Indiana. While South Bend faces a 97% chance of at least one more freeze after April 9, cities in southern Indiana like Evansville and Louisville have much lower risks, with only a 47% and 30% chance respectively. The data highlights the dramatic north-south gradient in Indiana's spring freeze patterns.

Why it matters

Knowing the precise freeze risk for your location is crucial for gardeners and farmers planning when to plant warm-weather crops. The wide variation across the state means planting schedules and frost protection measures need to be tailored to each region to avoid potential crop damage.

The details

The analysis looked at 30 years of weather data from 1996 to 2025, calculating the historical probability of at least one more morning with temperatures at or below 32°F after April 9 for cities across Indiana. The results show a clear north-south divide, with South Bend facing a 97% chance of an additional freeze, while Louisville's risk is just 30%. Other cities like Fort Wayne (93%), Bloomington (93%), and Richmond (93%) also have very high probabilities, while Evansville (47%) and Louisville (30%) are much less likely to see another spring freeze.

  • The data covers the 30-year period from 1996 to 2025.
  • The analysis focuses on the probability of a freeze occurring after April 9.

The players

National Weather Service

The federal agency that collects and analyzes weather data across the United States.

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What’s next

As the spring planting season continues, gardeners and farmers across Indiana should closely monitor their local weather forecasts and be prepared to protect sensitive crops, especially in northern and central parts of the state where the risk of an additional freeze remains high.

The takeaway

Indiana's dramatic north-south divide in spring freeze risk underscores the importance of tailoring planting schedules and frost protection measures to specific local conditions rather than relying on statewide averages. Careful attention to hyperlocal weather data can help growers avoid potential crop losses.