Economists Skeptical of Surprise March Jobs Report

Frequent revisions and mixed signals raise doubts about the accuracy of the latest employment data.

Apr. 6, 2026 at 10:28am

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The latest U.S. jobs report for March showed a surprise increase of 178,000 jobs, but economists are questioning the reliability of the data. Dr. Matt Will, an economist at the University of Indianapolis, is among those who doubt the accuracy of the report, citing the frequent revisions that often accompany these monthly releases. The contrast between the private sector's job growth and the government sector's decline is seen as a positive sign by Dr. Will, but other economic indicators like the ISM manufacturing report point to inconsistencies in the jobs data.

Why it matters

The mixed signals in the March jobs report have left many economists and analysts scratching their heads, as the data appears to contradict other economic indicators. This raises concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy, particularly in light of rising inflation pressures and the ongoing trade war.

The details

While the private sector added 143,000 jobs in March, the government sector shrank by 8,000 jobs. Dr. Will views the shrinking government sector as a positive sign, but he is skeptical of the overall report, noting that the ADP employment numbers, which are often seen as a more reliable predictor, were significantly lower than the official government data. Additionally, the ISM manufacturing report showed a decrease in employment, which contradicts the jobs report's claim of growth in the manufacturing sector.

  • The latest jobs report was released on April 6, 2026.

The players

Dr. Matt Will

An economist at the University of Indianapolis who has expressed skepticism about the accuracy of the March jobs report.

Tony Katz

The host of the radio show where the discussion about the jobs report took place.

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What they’re saying

“I don't accept this number”

— Dr. Matt Will, Economist, University of Indianapolis

“Thank goodness, we got smaller government”

— Dr. Matt Will, Economist, University of Indianapolis

“It's a stinct test, and this report doesn't pass it”

— Dr. Matt Will, Economist, University of Indianapolis

What’s next

Economists will continue to closely monitor economic indicators and revisions to the jobs report to gain a clearer picture of the overall health of the U.S. economy.

The takeaway

The March jobs report's mixed signals and frequent revisions have raised doubts about the reliability of the data, underscoring the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the economy's performance beyond a single monthly snapshot.