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Cynthiana Today
By the People, for the People
Tri-State Residents Warned of Earthquake Risk in New Madrid Seismic Zone
Experts say the region has a 25-50% chance of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years.
Published on Mar. 3, 2026
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The New Madrid Seismic Zone, which runs through parts of Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Missouri, has produced some of the strongest earthquakes in U.S. history. While the tri-state area of Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois has not experienced a major earthquake in recent history, experts warn that the region is still at risk and residents should be prepared.
Why it matters
The New Madrid Seismic Zone is the most active seismic area in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. A major earthquake in this region could cause catastrophic damage, with estimates of over $500 billion in costs and 730,000 people displaced from their homes. While the tri-state area may have a slightly lower risk than areas further south, the potential for a devastating quake is still significant.
The details
According to the United States Geological Survey, the New Madrid Seismic Zone has produced a series of powerful earthquakes in the early 1800s, including one believed to have reached 8.0 magnitude. These quakes dramatically altered the landscape, causing landslides, bank failures along the Mississippi River, and even temporary reversals of the river's flow. While the tri-state area has not experienced a major earthquake in recent history, the region is still considered part of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone and is at risk of experiencing damaging shaking.
- In the winter of 1811 to 1812, a series of powerful earthquakes along the New Madrid Seismic Zone occurred.
- On August 9, 2025, a magnitude 2.6 earthquake was reported near Cynthiana, Indiana, with residents in Evansville and New Harmony reporting weak shaking.
The players
United States Geological Survey
The federal agency responsible for monitoring and studying earthquakes and other natural hazards in the United States.
John Bellini
A geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey who provided information about the earthquake risk in the New Madrid Seismic Zone.
What they’re saying
“Though they can't predict or forecast earthquakes, historically where there has been one major earthquake, it is likely that another could happen.”
— John Bellini, Geophysicist
What’s next
The United States Geological Survey offers detailed guidance on how to prepare for and respond to earthquakes, including steps to take before, during, and after a quake.
The takeaway
While the tri-state area may not have experienced a major earthquake in recent history, the region's proximity to the highly active New Madrid Seismic Zone means residents should be prepared for the possibility of a catastrophic quake in the future. Taking steps to prepare and staying informed about earthquake risks can help mitigate the potential damage and impact on the community.
