Trump's Immigration Approval Slips with Swing Voters

President's base remains firm, but new data suggests rising unease among independent voters.

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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President Donald Trump's approval on immigration is slipping with political independents, undermining one of his strongest issues as concerns grow over aggressive enforcement tactics, according to national polling data.

Why it matters

Immigration has long been a defining issue for Trump and a rare area where he typically outperforms Democrats in public opinion. Erosion among swing voters could weaken a core pillar of his political appeal ahead of future elections.

The details

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows growing discomfort among independents with Trump's approach to immigration enforcement, even as Republican support remains firm. Overall, about four in 10 U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of immigration, a figure that has held steady over the past month. But views diverge sharply by party, with independents increasingly aligning with Democrats in saying the president has gone too far.

  • The AP-NORC poll of 1,156 adults was conducted February 5-8, 2026.
  • Trump's approval on immigration among independents has fallen from 37 percent in March 2025 to 23 percent in the new survey.

The players

Donald Trump

The 45th President of the United States.

Rick Kinnett

A 60-year-old Navy veteran from Crawfordsville, Indiana and an independent voter.

Brenda Shaw

A 65-year-old human resources manager from South Haven, Michigan and an independent voter.

Davis Ingle

A White House spokesman.

Kristi Noem

The Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

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What they’re saying

“Having the border shut, that's OK. But what Trump is doing with ICE and Homeland Security? You don't go yanking people out of cars. You don't go shooting people.”

— Rick Kinnett, Independent voter (The Associated Press)

“I am glad that immigrants aren't just flooding across the border, but what he's doing now in our cities, pitting the military against our people, these are Gestapo tactics. They're shooting U.S. citizens in the face and in the back.”

— Brenda Shaw, Independent voter (The Associated Press)

“President Trump was overwhelmingly elected by nearly 80 million Americans to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda. The president has already made historic progress not only in America, but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”

— Davis Ingle, White House spokesman (Newsweek)

“The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!”

— Donald Trump (Truth Social)

“Secretary [Kristi] Noem doesn't check with polls to decide whether or not she is going to enforce the law. Seventy percent of illegal aliens arrested by ICE have been charged with or convicted of a crime in the U.S. The American people, the law, and common sense are on our side, and we will not stop until law and order is restored after [former President Joe] Biden's open border chaos flooded our country with the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens.”

— DHS spokesperson (Newsweek)

What’s next

The growing unease among independents could place additional pressure on Republicans as immigration enforcement remains in the national spotlight. If those voters continue to view Trump's tactics as excessive, the party's traditional advantage on immigration may face further erosion in future polling and elections.

The takeaway

This poll data suggests President Trump's hardline immigration stance, once a political strength, may be eroding his support among crucial independent voters, potentially weakening a core part of his political brand ahead of future elections.