Republicans' Edge on Immigration Shrinks as Independents Balk at Trump's Tactics

AP-NORC poll shows growing unease among independents over Trump's immigration enforcement methods

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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A new AP-NORC poll suggests that the Republican Party's advantage on the issue of immigration has shrunk, as political independents are increasingly uncomfortable with President Trump's tactics. The poll found that about 6 in 10 U.S. adults say Trump has 'gone too far' in sending federal immigration agents into American cities, with independents much closer to Democrats than Republicans in their views on Trump's approach.

Why it matters

Immigration has been a signature issue for Trump, but the poll indicates his hard-line tactics are alienating independent voters, a crucial swing group, ahead of the midterm elections. The findings suggest Trump's immigration crackdown could become a political liability for Republicans if it continues to erode support among moderates.

The details

The poll found that about 3 in 10 U.S. adults trust Republicans to do a better job handling immigration, while a similar share say the same of Democrats. An additional 3 in 10 don't think either party would do a better job, and about 1 in 10 say both parties would handle it equally well. While Trump's core supporters remain overwhelmingly supportive of his immigration tactics, there are signs that more independents think he's gone too far, with about 6 in 10 independents now saying Trump has 'gone too far' in deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

  • The AP-NORC poll was conducted February 5-8, 2026.

The players

Donald Trump

The 45th President of the United States.

Brenda Shaw

A 65-year-old independent human resources manager from South Haven, Michigan.

Teviss Crawford

A 20-year-old student from Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Rick Kinnett

A 60-year-old independent Navy veteran from Crawfordsville, Indiana.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)

A federal law enforcement agency that is part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

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What they’re saying

“I am glad that immigrants aren't just flooding across the border, but what he's doing now in our cities, pitting the military against our people, these are gestapo tactics. They're shooting U.S. citizens in the face and in the back.”

— Brenda Shaw, independent human resources manager (AP-NORC poll)

“I don't think the deportations have been enough, to be honest. I think it's much too lax. If you crossed into our country illegally, it's just not right. You're taking things away from people who were born here.”

— Teviss Crawford, student (AP-NORC poll)

“Having the border shut, that's OK. But what Trump is doing with ICE and Homeland Security? You don't go yanking people out of cars. You don't go shooting people. I spent eight years in the military. This is not what I signed up for. This is not what we're supposed to do. This is not constitutional.”

— Rick Kinnett, Navy veteran (AP-NORC poll)

What’s next

The poll results suggest that Trump's hard-line immigration tactics could become a political liability for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections if they continue to erode support among independent voters.

The takeaway

The AP-NORC poll indicates that while Trump's core Republican supporters remain firmly behind his immigration enforcement approach, political independents are increasingly uncomfortable with his tactics, posing a potential challenge for the GOP ahead of the midterm elections.