Storm Prediction Center Warns of Strong Tornado Threat in Illinois and Indiana

Enhanced Risk and 10% Hatched Tornado Zone Issued for Southeastern Illinois and Western to Central Indiana

Published on Feb. 28, 2026

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The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of southeastern Illinois and western to central Indiana to an Enhanced Risk for severe weather, citing the potential for strong tornadoes as supercell thunderstorms develop near a sharp moisture boundary. A 10% hatched tornado zone indicates an elevated probability of EF2 or greater twisters in the region.

Why it matters

The Enhanced Risk and 10% tornado probability area reflect a heightened threat of destructive storms capable of causing significant damage and potential loss of life. Residents in the affected areas should closely monitor forecasts and be prepared to take shelter quickly if tornado warnings are issued.

The details

Forecasters point to several atmospheric factors increasing concern across the region, including 60°F dew points, a strong low-level jet enhancing wind shear, and the potential for supercell thunderstorms to form along the northern edge of the moisture plume. This juxtaposition of instability and low-level winds creates an environment favorable for tornadic development.

  • Storm development is expected during the afternoon into evening hours, particularly as instability increases ahead of the advancing system.

The players

Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center is a division of the National Weather Service that is responsible for issuing severe weather outlooks and forecasts for the United States.

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What’s next

The Storm Prediction Center will continue to monitor the situation and issue updated forecasts and warnings as necessary. Residents in the affected areas should remain vigilant and be prepared to take shelter if tornado warnings are issued.

The takeaway

This severe weather event highlights the importance of being prepared for potentially dangerous storms, especially in areas that are prone to tornadoes. By staying informed, having a plan, and taking quick action when warnings are issued, residents can help minimize the risk of injury or loss of life.