Severe Storms and Tornadoes Threaten Midwest and South

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across portions of nine states for Sunday. The greatest threats appear to be from Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi to the Lower Ohio Valley, with the potential for strong tornadoes, significant severe winds, and large hail.

Why it matters

The country has recently seen multiple deadly tornadoes across Illinois and Indiana, with many communities still working to recover. The severe weather setup on Sunday raises concerns for high-impact storms in populated areas ahead of a fast-moving cold front.

The details

An upper trough will amplify across the central U.S. on Sunday, with a surface low deepening as it moves from the Iowa-Missouri border toward Lower Michigan. As the system strengthens, an accelerating cold front will sweep east across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, focusing thunderstorm development along and ahead of the boundary. Forecasters expect midday storm development along a convergent front from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ozarks, with coverage increasing as storms tap into moisture toward the Ark-La-Tex and Mid-South through the afternoon.

• On Sunday afternoon, scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should develop and persist through Sunday night.
• By late afternoon, a long quasi-linear convective system is anticipated from Illinois south-southwestward, while semi-discrete supercells near and south of the front could initially produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes before merging into the broader line.
• Through the evening, strengthening winds across the Mid-South expanding into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will favor scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths.

What they’re saying

What’s next

The Storm Prediction Center will issue the next Day 2 Outlook later Saturday, and updates will likely refine exact corridors of greatest tornado and damaging-wind potential as new model data and observations arrive.